The situation in Somalia is evolving rapidly, particularly with ISIS’s burgeoning influence, notably in the Northeastern State region. It seems newly arrived foreign militants have significantly amplified the group’s capabilities. A recent report vividly underscores these developments, attributing the expansion primarily to foreign operatives, which has bolstered ISIS’s position amidst the ongoing tussle with their fierce adversary, al-Qaeda-associated al-Shabab.
A key observation from intelligence hidden within the mountains of Cal Miskaad highlights a palpable shift. “It’s a drastic change,” remarked a source, attributing the upward trajectory of ISIS-Somalia largely to these foreign fighters. These fighters have trickled in from diverse places—Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Sudan, Morocco, and Tanzania. Notably, detainees have revealed training ties with mentors hailing from the Middle East.
UN documentation further emphasizes these findings, echoing a sentiment recently shared by the U.S. Africa Command’s top brass. Just last month, the command chief asserted that IS-Somalia’s prowess had doubled over a year—a statement that aligns with the reports from Somali officials who have been sounding alarms about the swelling ranks of foreign recruits.
“This influx of external terrorist combatants into the African continent is disconcerting,” expressed Austin Doctor. He spearheads counterterrorism endeavors at the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center. Although the current flow to Somalia pales next to the tens of thousands once flocking to ISIS strongholds in the Middle East, Doctor shared with VOA his belief that such dynamics are set to persist. The geopolitical landscape across the Horn of Africa and other regions may indeed lure hopeful militants aiming to bolster their extremist affiliations.
As they face this evolving threat, global and regional security agencies are advised to brace for more of such occurrences in the foreseeable future.
The ramifications of this bolstered ISIS-Somalia presence resonate beyond local borders. Since 2022, Somalia has stood as a central node for al-Karrar—a pivotal part of ISIS’s global apparatus comprising nine regional offices. The report points out that despite leadership turmoil, the al-Karrar operation has grown more influential and decentralized, creating thorny challenges for any attempts to disrupt its schemes.
Moreover, the document brings to light the rise of Abdulqadir Mumin, who somehow ducked a U.S. airstrike in June. His newfound role as head of ISIS’s general directorate across provinces places him in a pivotal leadership position among the organization’s African affiliates. Meanwhile, Abdirahman Fahiye Isse, formerly Mumin’s deputy, has ascended to guide IS-Somalia, with Abdiwali Waran-Walac managing its treasury.
The financial landscape of IS-Somalia is depicted positively. The report asserts that despite their relatively small footprint, IS-Somalia can sustain operations and even generate extra funds, which could support other ISIS factions through al-Karrar’s network.
Overall, these revelations paint a sobering picture of the shifting dynamics in Somalia, hinting at broader implications for regional and international security. As elements within ISIS adapt and reinforce their strategies, stakeholders across the globe must remain alert and responsive to these developments for the stability of the region.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
