Introduction
Well folks, let’s just kick things off by saying that yes, I do indeed know how to spell “Red Sea” correctly. But see, here’s the twist — “Red SEE” is a clever little play on words that reflects the trio of nations forming this new coalition: Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea. Get it? S-E-E.
Now, what’s lit the fire under this newfound alliance? Just one thing: water. Folks who wear fancy suits and think deep thoughts have long opined that our next big battles would be over water. That future isn’t in some distant tomorrow, it’s right here, right now.
Ethiopia’s top dog, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has amped up the drama in Africa’s Horn with some inflammatory musings. On October 13, 2023, he stood before the Ethiopian parliament and declared the Red Sea was practically Ethiopia’s backyard. Pardon the drama, but this in itself is a stretch since Ethiopia is all land and no coast, its seaside vanished when Eritrea cut the umbilical cord.
Abiy further made his intentions crystal clear, asserting forcefully that securing a path to the Red Sea is a make-or-break situation for Ethiopia. To turn words into actions, he has shaken the international community by stating boldly that they are ready to “scrap” for it. Eyebrows, folks, well and truly raised.
Then, to the shock of many on January 1, 2024, Abiy inked a paper with a place called North Western State of Somalia, a region striving for legitimacy within Somalia’s borders. Ethiopia is bargaining for a slice of the coast to unfurl a naval presence, exchanging maritime dreams for formal acknowledgment of North Western State of Somalia.
Tensions have also escalated with Egypt over the Nile River, a dispute years in the brewing. With the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in play, water that traditionally flowed like clockwork into Egypt is being diverted. Egypt fired off a letter to the UN, charging Ethiopia broke the unspoken rules of neighborly conduct by unilaterally starting to fill that dam.
So it’s no secret Ethiopia’s ambitions and disputatious antics are pooling storm clouds over the Horn and the Red Sea region.
Geopolitics of the Horn – Yesterday and Today
Somalia
Egypt’s friendship card with Somalia goes way back, all the way to when it served a guiding role on the United Nations advisory squad for the United Nations Trust Territory of North Western State of Somalia between 1950 and 1960. Alongside Colombia and the Philippines, Egypt played mom to the region while Italy tried its hand at stewardship. Somali folks appreciated Egypt’s guidance, looking askance at Colombia’s and the Philippines’ ties with Italian aims.
Egypt waved the biggest flag of support for Somali independence at a time Ethiopia protested in powerful places. With guns in hand, Egypt was the first to outfit Somali soldiers in 1960, and during Ethiopia’s provocative war games in 1964, Egypt stood alone in sending military support to Somalia. Egypt has been the steady anchor in the tumultuous waters of Somali independence, making the renewed partnership today cause for joyous celebration in Somalia.
Eritrea
For those scribbling geopolitical reports, the dust-up between Ethiopia and Eritrea from 1998 to 2000 was marked by a border squabble, supposedly over some dot on the map called Badme. The real beef? Currency. After Eritrea went solo, leaving Ethiopia’s central bank behind, it declared Ethiopian bills no good, demanding hard cash for port access. When Eritrea told Ethiopia they could pay their Birr anywhere but here, tensions went nuclear. Those years are still remembered as some of Africa’s grimmest battles.
Today, Prime Minister Abiy hints at walking a war path again, targeting Eritrea’s Assab port for annexation, a move to widen Ethiopia’s Afar Region by drawing the coast into its fold.
The Red SEE Alliance
Hold onto your hats because the Horn isn’t what it was back in the day. Ethiopia, once a stabilizing anchor, is now the troublemaker in the neighborhood. For the first time in 2024, a couple of its neighbors are standing up to Ethiopia’s aggressions. The balance Ethiopia enjoyed since Somalia’s collapse in 1991 is over; Somalia stands strong again, alongside Eritrea.
Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions bring to mind “Vlad the Bad,” aka Putin — land-grabbing through sheer force (think Crimea and eastern Ukraine). However, this time the stakes involve Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea aligning against him.
The summit held in Asmara on October 10 laid new routes in policy. Key agreements backed Somalia’s independence and unity and committed to mutual defense strategies. They discussed sharpening Somalia’s military edge and endorsed its sovereign choices in selecting partners for AUSSOM — the next African Union mission for Somalia rolling out in 2025.
While Egypt and Eritrea gear up to contribute to AUSSOM, Ethiopia seems left in the cold. The fear looms that continued Ethiopian defiance could spark an all-out “Great Interstate African War” if action doesn’t follow diplomacy before too long. Only time will tell if Ethiopia yields to peace or presses on igniting tensions.
Aman Obsiye is a legal eagle based in Minneapolis and packs a punch with both a Juris Doctor and a Master of Public Policy from the University of Minnesota.
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
