Mogadishu (AX) — Sub-Saharan Africa’s arms trade is witnessing a seismic shift. Traditional suppliers, Russia for example, are losing their stronghold to rising competitors like China and Turkey. A fresh series of reports from the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), titled “Importing (In)security: The Evolving Arms Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa,” outlines this transformation, spotlighting China as a burgeoning force in the region’s arms market.
In a significant shift, many Sub-Saharan African countries now favor China for military equipment, with Beijing surpassing Moscow’s long-held dominance. The report reveals how Ethiopia exemplifies this pivot, increasingly depending on Chinese and Turkish arms supplies. Between 2019 and 2023, China furnished 41% of Ethiopia’s major arms imports, while Russia managed 46%, and Türkiye contributed 6.4% over the same period.
China’s sway is expanding across the entire region. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s slice of arms exports to Sub-Saharan Africa rose to 19%, overtaking Russia’s 17%. This realignment is part of a broader global trend, with Russia’s arms exports falling 53%. The ongoing war in Ukraine mainly spurred this drop, straining Russia’s military resources and tarnishing its reputation.
Countries once heavily reliant on Russian arms are now scouting for alternatives due to supply chain hiccups and reliability issues. Despite these setbacks, Russia still clings to substantial military cooperation deals with many African nations. At the July 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia had 40 active military-technical agreements covering training, hardware transfers, and counterinsurgency support.
“Competitive pricing and broad financing choices have allowed China to overshadow Russia’s traditional role,” the report states. Nations like Nigeria, Angola, and Ethiopia are chief importers of Chinese arms, with Nigeria receiving 44% of its major arms imports from China between 2019 and 2023 to buttress efforts against insurgents like Boko Haram.
Angola, previously Russia’s top arms customer in Sub-Saharan Africa, is also moving away from Moscow. In a December 2022 interview, Angolan President João Lourenço noted, “Our military remains dependent on obsolete Soviet-era technology. We welcome global partners to help modernize our military gear.” Angola has pivoted towards partners like China and France for its defense needs.
Simultaneously, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is carving out a role as a notable player in the arms trade. The UAE has boosted its arms transfers and security ties with countries including Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Chad, Mali, and Mozambique, supplying armored vehicles and providing military training, heralding a new phase in the region’s security dynamics.
The surge of new arms suppliers is reshaping Sub-Saharan Africa’s security landscape. While it gives countries more choices, it also complicates monitoring and regulating of arms flows, potentially intensifying conflicts. “Transparency and adherence to international arms control agreements are crucial to prevent further instability,” the report cautions.
The analysis also underscores the rising use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) by non-state actors, especially in West Africa. Over 6,600 casualties were reported between 2013 and 2022 due to IED incidents in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Nigeria. Non-state actors exploit unregulated markets for explosive components, often diverting materials from legal to illicit uses.
“Non-state armed groups exploit unregulated markets for explosive components,” the report emphasizes. “This highlights the necessity for robust control measures to prevent the diversion of legal materials to unlawful use.”
China’s growing role isn’t confined to arms sales. Beijing is making heavy investments in military training and cooperation across Africa. At the September 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit, China vowed $50 billion in financial support over three years, with $140 million earmarked for security collaboration.
“China considers the training of foreign military personnel an opportunity to promote its governance model and foster closer ties,” the report elaborates. This includes setting up military training centers and deploying Chinese private security firms. Beijing’s broad strategy aims to bolster its influence across Africa while positioning itself as a crucial security partner.
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
