Residents of Brandenburg, Germany, are heading to the polls for a regional election, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is anticipated to secure the top position. This development marks a continuation of the AfD’s upward momentum witnessed in various eastern states, outpacing the traditional dominance of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) in their historical bastions.
On September 1, the AfD achieved a milestone by becoming the first far-right faction to triumph in a state election since the shadows of World War II lingered over the nation, clinching victory in Thuringia. They narrowly missed outperforming their rivals in Saxony on the same day.
Nevertheless, other political factions remain staunchly opposed to joining forces with the AfD for coalition governance. As the party has yet to secure a majority in Thuringia or Saxony, and is unlikely to do so in Brandenburg, its prospects of influencing a regional administration appear dim.
The AfD, alongside several other far-right movements across Europe, is capitalizing on rising anxieties surrounding economic stagnation, immigration issues, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These sentiments resonate particularly strongly in the former Communist stronghold of eastern Germany where economic uncertainty has become deeply rooted.
Voting in Brandenburg wraps up at 6 p.m. local time (5 p.m. Irish time), with the initial exit polls and early projections to be unveiled promptly after the final votes are cast.
Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD’s candidate for the Brandenburg state premier position, placed his ballot in Golssen, located just south of Berlin. He expressed hopefulness regarding the prospects for his party, noting a noticeable improvement compared to their previous campaign in 2019.
“If we maintain the level of support we’ve experienced in recent weeks, we can expect positive changes in Germany,” Berndt remarked, acknowledging the significance of the election while stressing that the future of Brandenburg does not hinge solely on today’s ballot.
An AfD victory would not only be a significant blow to the Social Democrats but also shake the foundations of their long-standing governance in Brandenburg, a state home to 2.5 million people. The SPD has held sway here since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.
This outcome could further question Chancellor Scholz’s credibility and efficacy as a leader, particularly as he grapples with enduring unpopularity, standing as the least favored chancellor in recent memory.
Dietmar Woidke, the well-regarded SPD premier of Brandenburg, has kept his distance from campaigning alongside Scholz, who resides in the state capital, Potsdam. Woidke has openly criticized the performance of the ruling coalition, drawing attention to his party’s economic accomplishments over the past five years.
During this period, significant milestones have included the launch of a new Tesla factory and the development of Brandenburg Airport, which now serves as Germany’s third-largest aviation center catering to Berlin.
Recent surveys indicate that the SPD is closing the gap with the AfD. A poll released by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Thursday displayed the AfD at 28% within Brandenburg, closely followed by the SPD at 27%. The conservative party captured 14%, with the newly formed leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 13%.
“My biggest challenge this legislative term… is to ensure that right-wing extremists have no voice in our nation ever again,” Woidke outlined during a campaign event on Tuesday. He has threatened to resign should his party finish behind the AfD, a sentiment echoed by AfD national leader Tino Chrupalla, who stated that Mr. Scholz ought to consider the same course of action.
“It’s about time the current government faced the music following this election,” Chrupalla asserted.
Mr. Scholz’s junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats and the Greens, appear poised to struggle to meet the 5% threshold required to gain entry into the state parliament, as current polling suggests. Across the nation, the collective support for Scholz’s trifecta of parties is falling behind the conservatives, provoking speculation that the political landscape may shift dramatically ahead of the federal elections slated for September 2025.
