Following Its Efforts in Somalia, Egypt Now Turns to Eritrea to Marginalize Ethiopia
Last weekend, a meeting took place in Asmara between Egypt’s chief spy and Foreign Minister, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. They carried a direct message from President Al Sisi, emphasizing “enhancing and expanding bilateral ties across all sectors.”
Egypt’s active diplomatic endeavors in the Horn of Africa are ongoing. Following a recently inked military pact with Somalia, which included sending 10 Egyptian soldiers to Mogadishu, irking neighboring Ethiopia, Cairo is now eyeing a similar deal with Eritrea. This envisioned pact includes joint efforts to secure the Red Sea’s shipping lanes. The Emirati publication “The National” points out, Egypt is simultaneously mulling over mediating the decade-long conflict between Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Notably, the war concluded two years back, with the Ethiopian army involved against the TPLF. Last weekend saw a surprise visit to Asmara by Kamal Abbas, head of Egyptian intelligence and close confidant of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, accompanied by Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. The two delegates conveyed a direct message from Al Sisi to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, aiming to “strengthen and develop bilateral relations in all fields.”
The statement from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry highlighted that “the senior Egyptian officials also listened to President Afwerki’s insights on the Red Sea’s developments, stressing the necessity of establishing favorable conditions to restore regular maritime navigation and global trade through the Bab el Mandeb Strait.” This strait links the Red Sea with the Arabian Sea. Both Egypt and Eritrea possess a combined 5 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, inclusive of Egypt’s coasts along the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, and Eritrea’s control over 355 islands. Egypt oversees the northern Red Sea, including the Suez Canal connecting it to the Mediterranean, while Eritrea is proximate to the strategic Bab el Mandeb Strait. Sisi and Afwerki last met in February in Cairo, following a prior meeting three months earlier in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Should the military cooperation agreement with Eritrea be confirmed, it would be the latest in a series between Cairo and countries in the Horn of Africa, East Africa, or the Nile Basin. Egypt has penned similar deals with Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, and most recently, Somalia. Analysts often speculate that these agreements are primarily intended to nudge Ethiopia into being more flexible concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute—an enormous project on the Nile River that poses a significant concern for Cairo regarding its water supply. Notably, the agreement with Somalia, signed on August 14 during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Cairo, has heightened already sharp tensions between Somalia and Egypt on one side and Ethiopia on the other.
The agreement entails deploying 10 Egyptian soldiers to Somalia: five will join the African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 1, 2025, and the remaining five will be deployed bilaterally. Ethiopia swiftly reacted with a fiery statement and reinforced border security by dispatching armored vehicles and troops. It also seized several crucial airports in Somalia’s Gedo region—such as Luq, Dolow, and Bardere—to thwart the potential airlift of Egyptian troops, given that main roads are under Al Shabaab’s control.
The growing friction with Ethiopia has further consolidated the alignment between Somalia and Egypt, especially since President Mohamud’s election in May 2022. Egypt, historically a central figure in Somalia’s security, started contributing significantly in early 2023 by training Somali recruits, providing arms and ammunition, and treating wounded Somali soldiers in Egyptian military hospitals. Additionally, discussions on fortified strategic cooperation between Mogadishu and Cairo started last year, with unverified rumors suggesting that Somalia might allow Egypt to establish a military base in its center-south region.
Aside from their mutual contention with Ethiopia, improving relations between Egypt and Turkey—Somalia’s longstanding ally—have also drawn Cairo and Mogadishu closer. This thaw was markedly evident during Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi’s recent trip to Ankara, his first since 2014. The visit signaled a notable rekindling of ties between Egypt and Turkey after years of chilly relations due to differing stances on political Islam and other regional geopolitical issues. Remarkably, in 2021, the easing of tensions between Qatar—a key supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood—and the Gulf bloc including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt opened new avenues for Cairo-Ankara relations.
