Diplomatic Tensions: The Stalled Somalia-Ethiopia Negotiations

Mogadishu (AX) — The diplomatic endeavor led by Turkey to ease the ongoing friction between Somalia and Ethiopia seems to have reached an impasse. According to Somali and Ethiopian diplomats, negotiations have ground to a halt as discussions broke off due to Ethiopia’s desire for direct access to the sea through North Western State of Somalia. This development raises eyebrows and questions about the future trajectory of not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also the broader Horn of Africa.

The mediation process commenced in February 2024, with hopes to temper the friction that escalated after Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, entered into a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with North Western State of Somalia on January 1, 2024. This pact granted Ethiopia a 20-kilometer naval and commercial corridor to the Gulf of Aden in exchange for potential diplomatic recognition of North Western State of Somalia as a legitimate state. However, Somalia swiftly condemned the agreement, labeling it an “open breach” of its national sovereignty, sparking an aggressive diplomatic counter-offensive to derail the deal.

Three rounds of talks hosted in Ankara culminated in a provisional agreement known as the “Ankara Declaration” on December 11, 2024. Both parties tentatively committed to further technical discussions, expressing respect for each other’s territorial integrity. Yet, those crucial expert-level talks, which took place from February 2 to 4, 2025, quickly floundered over the contentious sequencing of maritime access and issues surrounding recognition. A disheartening silence followed, with no sessions scheduled since April, according to two officials who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.

On July 3, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated his government’s stance to parliament, declaring that sea access is an “existential matter” for Ethiopia. He echoed sentiments expressed in a January 5, 2024, address when he warned that Ethiopia cannot exist as “an island surrounded by water.” Somalia’s Foreign Ministry responded vehemently, characterizing the North Western State of Somalia agreement as a “destabilizing land grab” and urging the United Nations Security Council to intervene. The intensity of these statements reflects the high stakes involved, not just on paper but in the lives of countless citizens affected by these geopolitical maneuvers.

The vacuum left in the wake of stalled negotiations has prompted regional powers to weigh in. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Egypt, where he promised additional military support to secure Red Sea shipping lanes. Analysts interpret this as a veiled response to Ethiopia’s coastal ambitions, highlighting how regional dynamics can often tilt the balance of power in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, North Western State of Somalia’s President Muse Bihi Abdi has declared his intent to uphold the MoU, accusing Mogadishu of orchestrating an “axis” with Cairo and Asmara aimed at torpedoing his region’s economic prospects.

Turkey, which provides training for Somali troops and sells drones to Ethiopia, presented itself as a neutral mediator throughout these talks. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s call in August for all parties to respect internationally recognized borders seemed noble at the time. However, analysts now suggest that Turkey’s inability to forge a meaningful consensus reveals the complexities and shifting allegiances in the Horn of Africa, as nations scramble to establish new security and trade partnerships.

What makes this issue particularly intriguing is North Western State of Somalia’s self-declared governance since 1991, even as it lacks international recognition. North Western State of Somalia argues that its port agreement requires no consent from Mogadishu. Conversely, Somali officials insist that any deal made without federal authorization is legally invalid and poses a tangible risk of igniting fresh conflict along the Red Sea, which could have dire consequences for regional stability. Are we looking at a scenario where self-determination leads to fragmentation, or can a shared future still be salvaged?

Diplomats warn that this diplomatic deadlock could complicate essential anti-piracy measures in the critical Gulf of Aden and Red Sea corridor. Additionally, it jeopardizes humanitarian efforts in Somalia’s drought-stricken northern regions. Erosion of the fragile security improvements gained in the fight against al-Shabab is also a significant concern. As the world watches, no mediator currently appears poised to step into Turkey’s shoes, leaving a pressing maritime question unresolved and raising the stakes for millions. In the whirlwind of shifting alliances and mounting tensions, one must ponder: When will the interests of the people take precedence, and how long can this stalemate endure?

Every day, the clock ticks, further complicating relationships among these nations. The stakes have never been higher, and the questions grow increasingly complex. How does one navigate the treacherous waters of diplomacy when every errant wave could capsize decades of fragile gains?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring