On November 5th, Americans will cast their votes to choose the nation’s next president.
Historically, US election outcomes are often known shortly after polling stations close, but this year’s closely contested race might extend the suspense.
When Might We Know the 2024 Presidential Winner?
In many elections past, the winner was celebrated either late on election night or early the next morning. However, given the razor-thin margins anticipated in several states this year, news networks might hold off on making any projections.
Currently, Democrat Kamala Harris, who is serving as Vice-President, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican, have been running neck-and-neck.
In fact, the razor-thin margins could potentially trigger recounts. For instance, Pennsylvania, a vital swing state, mandates a state-wide recount if the difference between contenders is just half a percentage point. Just for a throwback to 2020, the margin stood at a hair over 1.1 percentage points back then.
Enter the legal side: plenty of pre-election lawsuits have already seen the light of day—over 100 to be exact. Many of these are led by Republicans, challenging everything from voter eligibility to the management of voter rolls.
And let’s not dismiss the potential for election-day shenanigans or disturbances at polling places, which might throw a wrench in the works.
Positively, some regions like Michigan have streamlined their vote-counting processes, mainly thanks to the fewer mail-in ballots expected compared to the pandemic-era election.
Moments in Time: When Past Presidential Results Became Known
Looking back at the 2020 election, although voting day was November 3rd, networks didn’t officially call it for Joe Biden until Saturday, November 7th, post-Pennsylvania’s confirmation.
In contrast, 2016 saw Trump declared the winner shortly before dawn, and Obama’s 2012 re-election emerged by midnight of election day.
But let’s not forget the 2000 spectacle between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Held on November 7th, that debacle stretched out until December 12th after the US Supreme Court stopped a recount in Florida, clinching Bush his presidency.
Spotlight States for 2024
There are seven crucial battlegrounds in play: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They will likely hold the keys to the outcome.
Each state hosts its own closing times for polls. For example, Georgia wraps up voting at 19:00 EST, North Carolina clocks it at 19:30 EST, and Pennsylvania closes shop at 20:00 EST.
Pennsylvania is expected to be a snore-fest; counting commences only on election morning, potentially stretching the results declaration by at least another day.
Conversely, Michigan endeavours to speed things along, with pre-election day counting allowed. Yet, the word on the street is not to expect decisive results until late Wednesday.
Feeling déjà vu? Arizona warns that full results might not be visible until early Wednesday due to delayed postal ballots.
Nevada complicates things further as mail-ins will count if they’ve arrived by November 9th.
The Nuts and Bolts of Counting Votes
A general overview includes election day votes being counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots. Those challenged alongside overseas and military votes are next.
Canvassing, which includes verifying every ballot against active voter counts and documenting any inconsistencies, is a crucial step in this process.
Ballots are scanned to tally results, but manual audits may check some tallies.
Local jurisdictions maintain strict rules about who can partake in the canvass, transparency levels during processes, and how observers can oversee proceedings.
What If Results Are Contested?
Enter the Electoral College—key to securing the coveted presidency. Despite winning the popular vote, securing these strategic college votes is what’s needed come meeting day on December 17th.
Traditionally, states allocate their entire college votes to whoever wins the state’s popular vote. Formal confirmation takes place in the following January.
Oh, and word to the wise: In 2020, Trump didn’t back down easily after losing, even coaxing his Vice-President, Mike Pence, into rejecting results, which Pence refused.
Yet waves of Republicans attempted to contest Biden’s win soon after.
Reforms followed, aiming to tighten up challenges to certified results and clarify the vice president’s role in the process.
Given the intensity of this year’s race, experts predict potential attempts to delay certifications at state levels.
Few of the current contenders, including Trump and JD Vance, are committing outright to accepting outcomes if they lose.
The Inauguration 411
Post-election, the president-elect will assume office through an inauguration ceremony at the US Capitol grounds on January 20, 2025. This solemn occasion marks the 60th presidential inauguration, where the victor pledges to uphold the Constitution and delivers the inaugural address.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
