Turkey strengthens its bond with Somalia through energy initiatives, yet escalating tensions with Ethiopia threaten these investments.
In a grand setting, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stepped up to address the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly on a bustling Tuesday, September 24, 2024. (AP Photo by Richard Drew) – AP Photo/Richard Drew
With considerable spotlight, President Erdogan participated in the send-off ceremony for Turkey’s energy research vessel, Oruc Reis. This month, the ship departed towards the Somali waters, bolstered by two Turkish naval ships.
Somali Energy Accord
The Oruc Reis deployment emerges from an energy agreement Türkiye hammered out with Somalia, marking a new phase in Ankara’s prolonged investment strategy in the Horn of Africa region.
“Turkey set up its grandest embassy worldwide in Mogadishu and also runs a military base there. A Turkish firm oversees Mogadishu’s port,” articulated Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical strategist.
Turkey inked a dual-stage defense arrangement with Somalia in February, followed by an energy exploration pact in March. Turkey needs a harmonious play between Somalia and Ethiopia.
A new clash threat has simmered in the Horn of Africa region since Ethiopia signed a pact with the self-declared North Western State of Somalia in January, a deal opposed fiercely by Somalia, which considers it a violation of its territorial wholeness.
Somalia, Ethiopia, and Turkey
Ankara maintains amicable ties with both Ethiopia and Somalia, playing mediator roles. Plans for September talks seemed promising for an agreement, but have now hit a pause, with delays overshadowing progress.
Events took a turn when Egypt sealed a defense agreement with Somalia in August, marking its first arms shipment to the nation in 40 years.
Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, cautions the Egyptian military’s engagement muddies the Ethiopian-Somali peace efforts.
“Emergent obstacles arise, particularly with Egypt inching closer to Somalia,” claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.
Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu warns the protracted Ethiopian-Somali conflict might escalate instability throughout the region.
“Crosswise alliances causing friction could intensify, given the uneasy bonds within the region and the often conflicting interests,” Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu explained.
Egypt’s Somali involvement adds another notch on the tension belt with Ethiopia, centered around the Nile River dam construction pivotal to Egypt’s survival.
Cairo’s Stance
Cairo perceives the dam project as a potential extinction-level threat. “The military footfall in Somalia seems like a strategic chess move, wielding influence in regional rivalries,” observed Kaan Devecioglu from Ankara-based think tank Orsam.
Nonetheless, Devecioglu states, “Avoiding escalation into hostility is crucial. Geopolitical sensitivity stems from Egypt’s fragile rapport with Ethiopia over the Nile. Rivals shouldn’t morph into adversaries,” he elaborated.
Last month, President Al Fateh Sisi of Egypt discussed Ethiopian-Somali stress points during his visit to Ankara, part of broader reconciliation undertakings between nations. This diplomacy is Ankara’s leverage against Horn of Africa tensions.
Experts, however, signal that Ankara’s mediation timeline is hitting a critical juncture.
“We observe heightening regional tension, with each camp seeking to maximize influence,” remarked Omar Mahmood, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Mahmood noted that Ankara’s efforts hold value but necessitate global-backed de-escalation strategies.
“A broader mobilization is vital for breakthroughs,” Mahmood proposed. Turkey continues to engage Ethiopia and Somalia independently, yet regional volatility accelerates, threatening to outpace diplomatic efforts.
Authored by: Dorian Jones
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
