In a scenario raising both eyebrows and questions, Turkey is set to receive a striking 90% of the revenues from Somalia’s offshore oil and gas endeavors, as revealed in a document published by the Nordic Monitor on Tuesday. This agreement, signed on July 19, 2024, between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation and the Somali Petroleum Authority, has sparked a vigorous debate over the balance of fairness and mutual benefit.

The deal, known as the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Agreement, hands a Turkish company the rights to explore and extract hydrocarbons from three sprawling offshore blocks. These blocks cover a substantial expanse of 15,000 square kilometers, yet Somalia is poised to gain a mere 5% of the total revenue. Does this distribution of wealth truly reflect a partnership?

The details of this agreement have not been without controversy. As per Article 4.7, Turkey will access 90% of the oil or gas yield through a “cost petroleum” model that allows recovery of the exploration and production expenses upfront before profits are shared. Essentially, Turkey is fronting the exploration and equipment funding, with Somalia acting as an official partner in the venture.

Curiously, lawmakers in Somalia approved this deal earlier in the year but confessed to the Nordic Monitor that they never laid eyes on the agreement document. This raises a critical concern: is transparency being sidelined?

Economists and diplomats are voicing apprehensions. “Somalia could be risking its financial future if the terms aren’t renegotiated,” warns an energy consultant from Nairobi, who prefers to stay anonymous due to the delicate nature of the subject. Somalia is estimated to harbor untapped reserves of about 30 billion barrels. With stakes so high, is short-term gain overshadowing potential long-term prosperity?

This oil revenue agreement is part of a larger suite of Turkish-Somali collaborations. Back in February 2024, a defense and economic memorandum promised Turkey’s commitment to rebuilding Somalia’s navy over a decade, with a notable cut of 30% from revenues flowing from Somalia’s exclusive economic zone. Subsequent agreements have laid the groundwork for cooperative ventures in offshore and onshore hydrocarbon exploration.

Adding to this narrative is Turkey’s seismic vessel, Oruç Reis. It embarked on a mission off Somalia’s coast starting October 25, 2024, to conduct extensive 3D surveys. The ship, escorted by Turkish naval frigates, has covered nearly 80% of its tasks. This initiative, according to Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, is yielding promising preliminary data on the reserves.

Yet, while Turkey’s footprint in Somalia widens—be it through military bases or managing Mogadishu’s key infrastructures like ports and airports—the geopolitical landscape remains tricky. Somalia’s tensions with Ethiopia, especially over issues like the North Western State of Somalia port deal, cast long shadows. Further, North Western State of Somalia’s decision to ban Turkish vessels from its waters complicates this dynamic.

As exploration initiatives advance, the discourse on this agreement continues to provoke critical reflections on Somalia’s economic sovereignty. How much control do they really wield? How much ambition can be tempered with cooperation?