1. The Rise of the Islamic State
Before we delved into the narratives surrounding the establishment of the Islamic State in Somalia in 2015, a key player on this turbulent stage was the Somali jihadist group al-Shabaab. Imagine a landscape where al-Shabaab—deeply rooted in the northern territories—was not only a formidable entity by itself but also intricately tied to expansive smuggling networks. At a certain point, however, a chasm began to open within their ranks, leading to a fateful division. From this split emerged Sheikh Abdulqader Muumin, who would later go on to steer the helm of the Islamic State in Somalia.
Somalia is a complex tapestry woven with strands of clan affiliations, which define both personal relationships and the broader socio-political landscape. The Islamic State found a willing ally in the Ali Suleiman sub-clan, leveraging its existing ties to smuggling and piracy to bolster its nascent operations. But why this particular clan, one might wonder? Perhaps because, in Somalia, clans are not just family; they are survival.
Enter Northeastern State—a vivid tableau of trade, communication, and history; a crossroads connecting Somalia to Yemen and the wider Middle East. Its story is sculpted by centuries of smuggling and piracy, where rugged terrain offers asylum to insurgents and nefarious enterprises alike. It’s a land that has largely carved its own path, remaining relatively autonomous for over three decades, with the Somali government’s authority echoing faintly, a distant whisper barely carried on the winds.
2. The Jihadist Behind the Islamic State in Somalia
In another chapter of Muumin’s life, he resided in Sweden and later the UK, before returning to Somalia to join al-Shabaab. Through the haunting allure of jihadist videos, he emerged as a potent figure, exhorting individuals to a cause that to many, seemed larger than life itself. Come 2015, the winds of change saw Muumin break away to pioneer the Islamic State in Somalia. His right-hand man in this ambitious schism? Mahad Moalim, another son from the Ali Suleiman lineage.
A pivotal moment arrived in 2017 with a chilling suicide bombing at Bosaso’s Juba Hotel—a commercial and maritime nerve center. This event significantly altered the dynamics in Northeastern State, turning fear into currency as the Islamic State coerced businesses into paying protection fees. Notably, in subsequent years, whispers became assassinations—some fifty claimed lives in central Somalia, each a grim tally in a ledger of extortion.
On July 27, 2018, the Islamic State officially christened the Somali faction as a full province, anointing it with responsibilities that stretched across central Africa to Mozambique. And, with funding channels extending from the broader Islamic State coffers and sporadic payments from as far as Mogadishu, the group solidified its place in the jihadist architecture.
By 2022, the US Treasury estimated that the Islamic State’s Somali outfit was amassing $2.3 million from a tapestry of extortion, imports, and agriculture—a testament to its strategic prowess in stark economic terms. Yet, could this seemingly robotic financial efficiency truly capture the human cost, the stories of those who found themselves ensnared in its grasp?
3. An Overblown Reputation
One might pause to question: Is the Islamic State’s shadow in Somalia cast larger than its corporeal form? Never having conquered or held vast territories, the group’s numbers in 2024 were pegged between 600 and 1,600—a dwarfish silhouette when juxtaposed with al-Shabaab’s towering presence in the south. Speculative links to plots such as the unfulfilled attack on Stockholm’s Israeli embassy or the Vatican incident in 2018 often unraveled under scrutiny.
Likewise, Muumin’s supposed global leadership within the Islamic State hierarchy is a narrative fraught with skepticism. Traditionally, an Islamic State leader hails from the Qureshi tribe, a lineage believed to tie back to the Prophet—a bloodline Muumin does not possess. Coupled with its status as the smallest African province, it’s a stretch to envision the Somali branch overshadowing its more potent counterparts.
Despite capturing attention in jihadist circles with its narrative of resilience and resourcefulness, the Somali faction grapples with its place in a hierarchy where might and size speak volumes.
4. Down but Not Out
In the dawning light of 2025, Northeastern State embarked on a resolute counter-offensive, skirmishing with the Islamic State forces under the skies that echoed with the roar of US and UAE air support. January and February witnessed decisive victories, numbering the fallen among them 70 Islamic State fighters. Through the haze of battle, the morale of their adversaries withered, culminating with the fall of their stronghold Buur Dexhtaal in March. A poignant moment, perhaps, yet not one to signal a definitive end.
Many fighters eluded capture, leveraging the terrain as an ally. Muumin, in his twilight years, along with his second-in-command Abdirahman Fahiye, are yet to face the reaper’s gaze. As these survivors navigate a precarious landscape for survival, the possibility remains that the Islamic State could continue its strain of extortion, tapping into a reservoir of local discontent and the desperation of Oromo refugees.
In contemplating the volatile landscape of Somali extremism, one might wonder: Is it the beginning of an end, or merely the end of a beginning for the Islamic State here?
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.
