Somalia: A Midterm Reflection on Leadership and Challenges

MOGADISHU – Three years have passed since May 15, 2022, a date that heralded the return of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. It seemed like a fresh chapter for Somalia’s political landscape, with his return stirring cautious optimism. Many saw him as the elder statesman capable of steering a nation in dire need of unity and healing.

Today, as his administration reaches its midpoint, those initial hopes face significant trials. Internal rifts, diplomatic mishaps, rampant corruption, and an unyielding insurgency paint a sobering picture. These have weighed heavily on the aspirations tied to Hassan Sheikh’s vision for his second presidency.

An Electoral Quandary and Stalled Constitutional Reforms

Among the challenges is the ongoing gridlock over Somalia’s electoral framework. Rather than achieving a cohesive model, division has intensified. The ties between the federal government and Federal Member States, notably Puntland and Jubaland, have frayed, undermining trust and destabilizing fragile federalism.

Opposition parties argue the framework lacks legal clarity and readiness, along with crucial political inclusivity. Meanwhile, the anticipated constitutional review process has stagnated. Although intended to foster long-term stability, initial amendments have sparked suspicion, perceived as veiled attempts to centralize authority.

In a seemingly unilateral move, the President has influenced leaders from Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest to join his political faction, the Justice and Solidarity Party. This shift echoes authoritarian tendencies akin to regimes in Djibouti and Turkey. Once a symbol of diversity, the National Consultative Council has been absorbed into this single-party system.

The President has coaxed FMS leaders to align with his Justice and Solidarity Party, involving key officials like Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre.

Volatile Foreign Relations and Diminished Influence

Somalia’s foreign policy under President Hassan Sheikh has been erratic, creating fractures with crucial allies. The discord with Ethiopia over its Red Sea deal with North Western State of Somalia underscored regional diplomatic tensions. This contention, seen as jeopardizing Somalia’s territorial integrity, drove the government to seek rapid regional backing.

Nonetheless, Mogadishu’s impulsive diplomatic maneuvers have prompted concerns about its strategic foresight. Relations with the UAE have also soured over security collaborations and political sway. Even long-time allies like the U.S., which reinstated military presence, express apprehension over inconsistencies in Somalia’s foreign policies.

Issued without substantive planning, sweeping nationalist statements have weakened Somalia’s standing as a dependable global partner.

Security: Achievements Marred by Strategic Voids

The government’s “total war” declaration against Al-Shabaab in 2022 saw initial successes, notably in central Somalia, due to clan militia support. While these offensives achieved symbolic wins, sustaining momentum proved elusive. Retaken areas oftentimes lacked governance, creating a vacuum that Al-Shabaab exploited.

The insurgency’s persistent hold in Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle, with advances towards Mogadishu, highlights ongoing challenges. Furthermore, the tepid transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM points to sustainability concerns, amplified by donor fatigue and overextended Somali forces.

The Slogan’s Test: A Moment of Decision

Advocates for President Hassan point to progress milestones—like debt relief, diaspora investment, and state-building initiatives such as the Mogadishu Development Corporation. Yet these achievements stand in stark contrast to widespread disillusionment. Accusations of exclusionary governance grow, amplifying polarization at home and unpredictability abroad.

“Peace within and with the world,” the slogan that encapsulated Hassan Sheikh’s vision, now seems a distant echo. His administration faces a crucial crossroads. Will Somalia choose a path of inclusive dialogue and transparent foreign relations, or continue its current trajectory of selective engagement?

A course correction would necessitate renewed electoral discussions involving all stakeholders. Enhancing transparency in foreign policy, tempering rhetoric, and prioritizing robust post-liberation governance are imperative—beyond sheer military tactics.

Hassan Sheikh’s second term held potential to rekindle diplomacy and inclusivity. Instead, it has highlighted the delicate nature of Somalia’s advancements. Real leadership entails acknowledging that slogans hold no weight without genuine action and accountability.

To truly preserve his legacy and deliver on his promise for peace, the time for change is immediate. The clock ticks steadily on—all while history watches, ready to judge those who favored rhetoric over meaningful progress.

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Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.

The Author: Director of Arlaadi Media Network and an experienced foreign policy journalist and communications specialist. Connect on X (Twitter) @JaylaaniJr.