Secret Dialogues in Somalia: Seeking Peace Amidst Conflict

In the heart of Somalia’s political dynamics, undisclosed dialogues have stirred since early May. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and significant Al-Shabaab figures have been engaged in covert discussions, as revealed by several insiders. These talks, intriguingly, are facilitated by influential Hawiye businessmen who connect both the government and the militant faction.

“It’s a delicate dance,” commented a seasoned Mogadishu businessman, who, like others involved, prefers to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of these negotiations. He described the strategy as a “give-and-take” approach, meticulously crafted to address the persistent insurgency.

President Mohamud’s initiative is rooted in clan affiliations, predominantly focusing on Hawiye leaders within Al-Shabaab. This move aims not only to stabilize his leadership but also to navigate the growing political pressure he faces. With Al-Shabaab’s recent territorial expansions in regions like Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, their earlier momentum—once directed towards Mogadishu—seems to have decelerated.

Reflecting on history, a businessman recalled, “When Mohamud returned to office in 2022, it was a turning point; negotiations with Al-Shabaab began.” These interactions, reportedly championed by wealthy Hawiye businessmen from the Hiraab sub-clan, are pivotal in shaping the dialogues.

In early 2023, a committee formed by these businessmen engaged with senior Al-Shabaab leaders such as Mahad Karate and Yusuf Kaba-kutukade. They raised pressing concerns about the adverse impacts on Hawiye-owned enterprises compared to other clans.

Instances of mutual agreements emerged. Al-Shabaab apparently vowed to reduce direct assaults on Mogadishu’s businesses. One businessman revealed, “The Shabaab movement assured particular enterprises around Mogadishu of non-targeting.”

An anecdote from a local driver illustrated this assurance. He noted, “My boss directed me to specific routes, assured by Al-Shabaab for safe transit,” highlighting the intertwining of daily life and strategic negotiations.

However, peace bears a price. In exchange for protection, businesses resumed paying zakawat—religious taxes to Al-Shabaab—halted previously amid military pressures. Now, cash transactions occur via intermediaries in Mogadishu, reflecting intricate layers of this détente.

The financial undertakings don’t stop here. Al-Shabaab has pressed for unfrozen bank accounts and sought renewed financial backing from businessmen, reciprocated by reducing business assaults, especially along critical avenues like Maka Al-Mukarama Road.

The Kismayo Proposal: A Strategic Offer

In a significant proposition, President Mohamud has advised Al-Shabaab to cease its advances towards Mogadishu, holding their positions. This strategic pause comes after Al-Shabaab’s capture of pivotal towns in Lower Shabelle such as Awdhegle and Barire.

The Barire Bridge, a crucial connector, now lies under Al-Shabaab’s influence, enabling a proximity to Mogadishu that is both strategic and alarming for the federal government.

In March, Al-Shabaab’s patrols edged closer to Mogadishu, reviving Sharia-based judicial systems at the Ali Mahdi farm. Residents venture here for judicial matters, signifying shifts in local governance.

The narratives around these talks extend to permitting government forces access to roadways in regions like Gedo and Lower Jubba. Here, federal troops gear for a significant assault on the contested Kismayo, a region where leadership change looms amidst these covert discussions.

The undercurrents suggest ambitions of altering leadership dynamics in Jubaland, with Al-Shabaab potentially positioned as strategic partners should Kismayo fall.

A Contentious Quagmire in Galmudug

Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab demands government withdrawal from Xarardheere and Ceeldheer, two focal points in Galmudug pivotal to their operations. These towns facilitate not just internal logistics but also international ties, housing foreign militants and coordinating piracy operations.

Yet, discussions have stumbled, reaching an impasse. “Implementation remains a hurdle,” remarked a security source, underscoring ongoing challenges.

The negotiations, however, face domestic scrutiny. Some lawmakers, like MP Abdisalam Dhabancad from Galmudug, express stark reservations. “These talks could perilously mean yielding control to Al-Shabaab terrorists,” he warned.