Somalia’s Tactical Approach to Balancing Ethiopian Power in the Horn of Africa

The diplomatic climate between Somalia and Ethiopia has turned icy since early 2024. This fracas, largely driven by each nation’s jostling for power in the turbulent Horn of Africa, has created quite a stir across the political landscape. Tensions soared back in January when Ethiopia signed an eyebrow-raising agreement—famously known as a memorandum of understanding (MoU)—with North Western State of Somalia. For those out of the loop, North Western State of Somalia is a self-declared, breakaway region in northern Somalia, having proclaimed independence from the central government all the way back in 1991. Through this MoU, North Western State of Somalia extended a 50-year lease to Ethiopia, handing over a whopping 20 kilometers of coastline. This gesture offered Ethiopia, previously without an outlet to the sea, a vital coastal passage and even granted it military staging near the bustling port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden. In exchange for these jammy terms, Ethiopia gave a nod to North Western State of Somalia’s quest for independence, becoming the very first to do so.

Naturally, this twist didn’t sit well with the Somali government. The idea of Ethiopia stretching its borders toward the sea was downright alarming, potentially inviting both regional quagmires and religious face-offs while poking a stick at Somali sovereignty. Viewed as a meddlesome maneuver, Mogadishu interpreted this pact as Ethiopia’s sneaky move to ease domestic woes or, perhaps, as leverage to squeeze concessions from Somalia. Branding the MoU as hostile, Somalia gave Ethiopia’s ambassador the boot, grumbled to the United Nations Security Council, and flatly refused any diplomatic chitchat with Ethiopia until the pact with North Western State of Somalia got scrapped.

What’s the word on the street across Africa? The Arab League and European Union were quick to ring Ethiopia’s deal with North Western State of Somalia a belligerent breach of Somalia’s borders. But Africa was more split on the matter. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development piped up with a timid call for dialogue, which struck Mogadishu as leaning a bit too friendly toward Ethiopia. Meanwhile, the African Union stood firm in propping up Somalia’s sovereignty, issuing concern that endorsing North Western State of Somalia could spark off tales of secession tales across the restless Horn of Africa.

Since 2007, the African Union has rolled its sleeves up in Somalia to tackle the Al-Shabaab insurgents. This ongoing peacekeeping mission is nearing its curtain call at the year’s end, with the baton passing to the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia by January 2025. Keen on a smooth transition without any fresh political hiccups, the AU is treading softly.

The commotion ratcheted up a notch in August when Ethiopia dispatched a diplomatic envoy to North Western State of Somalia, reaffirming its recognition. This maneuver stirred the waters of Somali-Ethiopian relations, even as it stoked fears of instability in East Africa. In the wake of this, Somalia began cranking up its political wheels, sewing together a pajama party of regional alliances to counter Ethiopia’s moves. With Addis Ababa holding a clear military edge, Mogadishu’s power play seems all about leveling the playing field.

Backing its plan with actions, Somalia inked a framework agreement with Türkiye last February. This ten-year pact between the defense hotshots of both nations harbors goals of establishing a collective military force to safeguard Somalia’s coasts. Additionally, it aims to upgrade Somalia’s naval power and bolster its ground troops with technical support. In return, Türkiye gets the thumbs-up to scout and tap into oil and gas wealth beneath Somali waves.

In sync with this, Türkiye’s parliament sanctioned a two-year deployment of its troops within Somali waters this past July. This budding partnership promises to polish Mogadishu’s prestige on the global stage by cozying up economic and security links with Türkiye. Meanwhile, Türkiye is on a mission to boost its clout in Africa and is eyeballing the Horn of Africa as its launchpad.

Further underscoring its strategic dalliance, Somalia signed a defense charter with Egypt in August. The honor of hosting Egypt’s military gear and help emphasizes Egypt’s commitment to safeguarding Somalia’s sovereign pride, clamping down on terrorist threats, and promoting regional stability. Egypt intends to send troops as part of the AU’s new mission here, much to Somalia’s delight.

What’s Egypt’s angle? The Nile water wrangle with Ethiopia carries significant weight. The colossal Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, still on the rise despite Egypt’s fervent protests, poses a serious threat to Egypt’s water resources, hence its national security.

Switching focus slightly, the blossoming rapport between Cairo and Ankara—between eagle eyes on Somalia—raises prospects of seamless cooperation. Egypt’s military interest in the region will need to sync with Türkiye, an active player here. Relations between Egypt and Türkiye have hit a sweet note lately, leading to Egypt’s president visiting Ankara recently. This warming engagement could help iron out any competitive creases between the two nations in Somalia.

Following Méridien, Somalia has cranked up its diplomatic heat on Addis Ababa to nix the agreement with North Western State of Somalia’s splinter authorities. Recently, Somalia bagged another MoU on defense, this time with Tanzania in October. Although specifics remain under wraps, Somalia seems set to expand its web of allies, aiming to keep Ethiopian ambitions in check.

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring