Somalia’s Drive for Direct Elections Widens Divide with Regional States
Mogadishu (AX) — Somalia is on the cusp of a historic milestone. Preparing for its first direct elections in over half a century, the nation is inching towards democratic reform. Yet, this noble endeavor risks intensifying the rifts in an already fragile federal framework. Tensions have spiked between the Federal Somali Government (FGS) and the regional administrations of Jubbaland and Northeastern State. Political squabbles could possibly unleash chaos as the country approaches its 2025 elections.
In a noteworthy move last month, the National Consultative Council (NCC) of Somalia clinched a transformative agreement. They decided to transition from the indirect voting system to one where each citizen’s voice counts directly. Currently, it is the clan delegates and state legislatures who choose parliamentarians, but change is afoot. Come June 2025, it’s set for citizens to cast votes in municipal elections, with parliamentary and presidential elections slated for September. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud hailed the reform as a beacon of stability and unity. Yet, ironically, it has further revealed schisms within the nation’s federal states.
While three federal states stand behind this initiative, Jubbaland and Northeastern State refuse to play ball. These two heavyweights are Somalia’s influential regions. Jubbaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, or “Madobe,” as he’s popularly known, voiced his dissent by skipping October’s NCC meetings. His stand? The new system infringes on regional sovereignty. In defiance, Jubbaland is organizing its own elections and has scrapped term limits. This means Madobe can vie for a third term, putting him in direct confrontation with Mogadishu.
Northeastern State, meanwhile, is marching to the beat of its own drum, having declared in March that it would step outside the federal architecture. Officials here are disgruntled with how the federal government is managing constitutional reforms. As a result, they have chosen to govern independently, shedding the NCC’s election framework like an unwanted cloak.
The air is thick with tension, with the looming threat of violence casting a shadow over proceedings. Back in 2020, clashes erupted due to disagreements over the 2019 Jubbaland elections. It resulted in tragic violence, forcing over 56,000 from their homes in southern Somalia. Analysts fear history might repeat, especially since Jubbaland is ramping up its forces as a counteraction to Mogadishu’s moves.
Further complicating the scenario is the involvement of regional powers. Ethiopians and Kenyans, under the guise of an African Union peacekeeping mission, remain stationed in Jubbaland. Ostensibly, they are countering Al Shabaab, yet their presence is anything but neutral. With stakes in Somalia’s tranquility, both Ethiopia and Kenya have historically supported political factions aligning with their security objectives. This has occasionally strained Somalia’s sovereignty. The federal government alleges Ethiopia of arming opposition groups within Northeastern State and South West states, an accusation denied by Addis Ababa.
Efforts to defuse this volatile situation are ongoing, albeit cautiously. This week saw a Kenyan delegation convene with Madobe in Kismayo, presumably to mediate peace between Jubbaland and the SFG. President Mohamud also hinted at a possible summit with the presidents of Jubbaland and Northeastern State, though dates remain elusive.
Eyes of the world are fixated on Somalia. The 2025 elections are pivotal for the Horn of Africa’s stability. The future hinges on whether Somalia’s leaders can patch up their differences. For now, though, the rebellious stance of Jubbaland and Northeastern State underscores the holding of power’s delicate balance in the region’s federal mosaic.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
