Somalia’s Future Council meets in Mogadishu as electoral clock ticks and tensions flare
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Opposition leaders and officials from the federal member states of Puntland State and Jubaland convened in Mogadishu on Saturday under the banner of the Somali Future Council, underscoring rising national unease as Somalia nears key electoral deadlines.
- Advertisement -
The consultations were held at the Airport Hotel inside the fortified Halane compound, where the visiting presidents of Puntland State and Jubaland are based during their stay in the capital. The talks centered on setting conditions for an inclusive political dialogue at a moment when the federal government’s mandate is approaching its end and timelines for federal institutions begin to expire in April and May 2026.
Flashpoint at Halane raises stakes
The meeting followed a confrontation days earlier in which federal authorities blocked several opposition figures from entering the Halane compound with their security details. The restrictions angered opposition groups and injected fresh uncertainty into a delicate pre-election period.
Those affected included:
- Former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed
- Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble
- Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire
- Former Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon Saacid
- Opposition politician Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame
In an attempt to cool tempers, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre paid visits to some of the leaders at their residences, including Sheikh Sharif and Roble, in what officials described as an effort to ease tensions and keep lines of communication open.
Why it matters
The Future Council’s renewed engagement in Mogadishu is the latest attempt to stave off a governance vacuum as institutional terms near expiration and as disputes over the rules of the game risk hardening. The stakes are high: failure to reach an agreement could deepen political fragmentation just as Somalia seeks to consolidate security gains and advance state-building.
From Kismayo to Mogadishu
The presence of Puntland State and Jubaland leaders in the capital follows recommendations from a Somali Future Council conference held in Kismayo in December 2025. That gathering urged the Federal Government of Somalia to host an inclusive forum in Mogadishu to resolve electoral disputes and chart a consensual path forward. The federal government subsequently called a national political conference, prompting the current round of consultations.
No boycott signaled, but trust is thin
According to sources familiar with Saturday’s meeting at Airport Hotel, Future Council leaders emphasized the need to create a conducive atmosphere for dialogue. They stressed that meaningful engagement has yet to take shape and that confidence-building measures are needed before talks can proceed. There was no indication of a boycott of meetings at Villa Somalia; participants instead underscored the importance of sequencing — addressing security access, political assurances and protocol issues to enable substantive negotiations.
Competing priorities, muted diplomacy
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has not yet signaled readiness to join the consultations. He departed for Ethiopia a day earlier to attend an African Union summit, an absence that political observers say reflects competing priorities at a sensitive moment in Somalia’s political calendar.
Analysts also say the federal government appeared unprepared for the coordinated arrival and engagement of the Puntland State and Jubaland leaders in Mogadishu, a move that has shifted the onus back onto federal authorities to shape a credible negotiation framework.
The international community — a central partner in Somalia’s stabilization and state-building efforts — has so far remained publicly silent on the latest developments, even as diplomatic actors are expected to play a behind-the-scenes role in encouraging dialogue and deterring escalation.
What’s next
With the opposition insisting on basic guarantees and access, and regional leaders now in the capital, the focus turns to whether the federal government can swiftly establish ground rules for an inclusive forum. The outlines of that process — who sits at the table, what agenda is prioritized and how commitments are enforced — will likely determine whether Somalia moves toward a managed transition or stumbles into deeper confrontation as the electoral timetable approaches.
For now, the Future Council meeting has kept the door open to negotiations. Whether that door leads to a substantive settlement or another round of procedural disputes may hinge on rapid confidence-building steps at Halane and a clear signal of political will from Villa Somalia.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
