MOGADISHU (Axadle) – Politics, as the saying goes, is the art of the possible. And it seems Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is gearing up for yet another round of diplomatic chess; this time, in the venerable land of the Pharaohs – Egypt! If insider whispers are to be trusted, the Somali President is due to touch down in Cairo in the next few days, hot on the heels of his arrival back in Mogadishu.
So why is President Hassan Sheikh making a beeline for Egypt? Word on the street is that he’s aiming to have a heart-to-heart with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Fresh from a visit to the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, where he had an engaging tête-à-tête with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, President Mohamud is all set to play mediator in one of Africa’s longest-running diplomatic hiccups – the Nile River saga.
Egypt and Ethiopia: A Splashy Dispute with Ripples in Somalia
At the heart of the matter is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has long been a bone of contention between Egypt and Ethiopia. Apparently, President Hassan Sheikh is harboring hopes of writing a new chapter of friendship with both Addis Ababa and Cairo. Yet, no one’s popping the champagne just yet, as rumors swirl that both Sisi and Abiy are not exactly sold on Somalia’s diplomatic medley in this hydropolitical opera.
Contrary to the current vibe, once upon a time, Villa Somalia aligned with Egypt and Eritrea in a diplomatic conga line against Ethiopia. But that party got cut short. Enter, the Turkish-brokered Ankara Agreement – the golden handshake that scripted a newfound buddy-buddy status between Somalia and Ethiopia. This thaw in relations followed a cold war triggered by North Western State of Somalia and Ethiopia sealing a maritime deal. Drama, drama, drama!
And if you think that’s all the twist and turns we’ve got, think again. Somalia’s Foreign Minister is already camping in Cairo. The grand plan, insiders say, is to whisper sweet nothings in Egypt’s ear, convincing them that picking a military fight with Ethiopia right now is akin to bringing a knife to a gunfight. Somalia, with its lean and hungry armed forces and shaky ties with regional states, is prioritizing peace over posturing. It’s Ethiopia today, Eritrea tomorrow – a diplomatic roulette, but in the Somali way.
Red Carpet in Addis Ababa – But Cairo Raises an Eyebrow
Fast forward to President Hassan Sheikh’s visit to Ethiopia. It was nothing short of a political pageant. As Somali flags fluttered triumphantly across Addis Ababa’s boulevards, you could almost hear the violins playing. The optics were impeccable. But wait! Cairo didn’t quite roll out the red carpet in response. More like a chilly polite nod, if you will. This lukewarm response adds another layer of complexity to the intricate dance among Somalia, Egypt, and Ethiopia.
Foreign Policy: The Good, the Bad, and the Scrutinized
While President Hassan Sheikh is busy wearing his many hats, there are murmurs back home – some not so flattering. Critics argue that his foreign policy paper looks more like a doodle than a blueprint, accusing him of letting personal allegiances overshadow national interest. This policy pudding, they opine, has left Somalia caught in geopolitical crossfire, not to mention undercutting the country’s valiant attempt to rise from the ashes of yesteryears’ strife.
It’s no secret that both Ethiopia and Egypt fancy having Somalia cozying up to their side of the fence. Yet, in the geopolitical game that is East Africa, the stakes are high, and the players plentiful. Somalia, with its modest political cards, navigates these tumultuous waters as best it can. It remains to be seen if President Hassan Sheikh’s trip to Cairo will be a diplomatic masterstroke or just adding water to the Whirlpool of regional politics.
Until then, we can only anticipate, speculate, and moralize over a cuppa while the political theatre unfolds. After all, as we Somalis like to say, you can’t test the depth of a river with both your feet!
Report by Axadle
