Somali intelligence and international allies kill 23 al-Shabaab militants in Middle Shabelle

Somalia says 23 al-Shabaab fighters killed in Middle Shabelle raid

What happened

Somalia’s intelligence service says it has killed 23 al-Shabaab militants in a joint operation on Sunday in the country’s volatile Middle Shabelle region, the latest in a series of strikes aimed at degrading the Islamist insurgent group’s capacity to stage attacks.

The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) said the operation unfolded around the village of El-Weyne, under the El-Baraf area of Mahaday district, north of Mogadishu. According to Somali security officials, the strike targeted a site where fighters had gathered, hitting what they described as an emerging hub for future operations. Authorities said several militant leaders were among the dead.

The government did not name the “international partners” involved, a common practice in Somalia’s shadowy counterterror battlefield, where the United States, Turkey, and regional actors have separately supported Somali forces with training, intelligence, and occasionally air power. It was not immediately possible to independently verify the casualty figures, and al-Shabaab did not respond to requests for comment.

Minimizing civilian harm

Somali officials said there were no reports of civilian casualties from Sunday’s action—an important point for a government that has repeatedly pledged to limit harm to non-combatants as it intensifies raids and precision strikes in rural strongholds. Independent access to El-Weyne is limited, however, and casualty accounts in such operations often evolve.

Somalia’s central regions have long been a front line against al-Shabaab, whose fighters move along river valleys and scrubland, exploiting villages and farmsteads for cover. El-Baraf itself has seen repeated clashes over the past three years as federal forces and local community fighters—often called “macawisley”—push to dislodge entrenched militants.

A pattern of strikes

The raid follows a similar operation reported in the same village on October 30, 2025, which Somali authorities also described as a significant blow to the group. Together, the back-to-back actions suggest targeted intelligence drives in Mahaday district—part of a wider campaign that seeks to preempt al-Shabaab’s efforts to regroup after recent territorial and financial pressures.

Officials said Sunday’s attack was launched on the basis of “credible intelligence” that militants were assembling to establish a new base for organizing operations aimed at destabilizing the country. The wording echoes the Somali government’s refrain since it declared a “total war” on al-Shabaab in 2022, blending ground offensives, community mobilization, and strikes on revenue networks, including illicit taxation and smuggling routes.

Why it matters

Al-Shabaab remains one of Africa’s most resilient insurgent groups, capable of devastating bombings in Mogadishu and complex assaults on Somali and allied military positions in rural areas. While the group has lost ground in some central districts, it adapts quickly, using intimidation, roadside explosives, and a parallel shadow administration to maintain influence.

Every reported strike raises familiar, difficult questions. Can targeted operations meaningfully degrade a networked insurgency without a corresponding expansion of governance, services, and justice in newly “cleared” areas? Can the state protect local leaders who step forward to resist al-Shabaab’s extortion, a campaign that has forcibly tapped traders, pastoralists, and civil servants from the coast to the Ethiopian border?

Somalia’s allies, watching from Washington, Ankara, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa, are asking similar questions. A steady stream of operations may blunt near-term threats. But long-term security depends on whether Somali institutions can secure roads, keep schools open, rebuild clinics, and offer credible dispute resolution—basic functions that, in some areas, al-Shabaab has attempted to mimic or co-opt.

The wider regional and global context

Somalia’s campaign unfolds as African Union peacekeepers continue a phased drawdown and the Somali National Army and police assume greater security responsibilities. That handover magnifies the stakes of each operation—and of each mistake. Civilian protection is not just a moral imperative; it underpins the legitimacy of the state in places where memories of clan conflict and state collapse are raw.

Beyond Somalia, the Horn of Africa and the wider continent are seeing overlapping crises: droughts and floods linked to climate variability, mass displacement, and the spread of armed groups from the Sahel to northern Mozambique. In this fragile environment, a local setback can cascade quickly. A disrupted harvest along the Shabelle River can swell cities, strain services, and create openings for recruitment. In that sense, Sunday’s raid is part of a broader race—not only to prevent the next attack, but to build conditions where violence is harder to sustain.

What we know—and what we don’t

• Location: El-Weyne village, El-Baraf area, Mahaday district, Middle Shabelle region.
• Claimed outcome: 23 al-Shabaab fighters killed; several leaders among the dead.
• Partners: NISA says the mission involved international partners, without naming them.
• Civilian toll: Officials report none; independent verification remains limited.
• Pattern: A similar operation was reported in the same village on October 30, 2025.

Voices from the ground

Residents in Middle Shabelle often describe the cadence of conflict as a kind of weather—sudden, seasonal, and shaping daily life. Market traders in Mahaday time their journeys to the condition of dirt roads and the rumors of checkpoints. Parents weigh the risk of sending children to school when gunfire crackles in nearby fields. For Somalis, the difference between “clear” and “contested” is measured in minutes and miles.

Against that lived reality, the government’s message on Sunday was unambiguous: more operations are coming. Officials framed al-Shabaab as a persistent threat to peace and stability, and promised to keep striking until the group is eradicated. It is a promise many Somalis want to believe, tempered by years of hard experience and a simple metric: will tomorrow feel safer than today?

What we’re watching

• Retaliation risk: Al-Shabaab often responds to high-profile losses with asymmetric attacks, including bombings in urban centers or ambushes on supply routes.
• Security transition: How Somali forces manage the continuing handover from African Union troops will shape the tempo and sustainability of operations.
• Governance follow-through: Whether newly targeted areas see immediate security, aid, and basic services will determine if gains hold.
• Transparency: Clear attribution of international involvement and credible reporting on casualties will be key to maintaining public trust at home and abroad.

For now, Somalia’s intelligence service is trumpeting a win in Middle Shabelle. In a war defined as much by patience and persistence as by firepower, Sunday’s strike is another move in a long, grinding contest—one where the toughest victories are measured in the quiet moments that follow.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.