Researcher Investigates Economic Consequences of Declined Humanitarian Aid in East Africa

The research falls into two segments: “The Cost of Inaction: Impacts of WFP Assistance Shortfalls on Food Security Outcomes in Somalia” and “The Cost of Inaction: Impacts of WFP Refugee Assistance Shortfalls on Food Security Outcomes in Uganda.”

In 2021, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) reached 34.4 million folks in East Africa through initiatives like providing school meals and specialized food for at-risk groups.

Fast forward a year, and East Africa saw the number of food-insecure people balloon to 82 million. The culprits? Climate change, global economic turmoil, and food supply disruptions, notably fueled by the Ukraine conflict.

The demand for help in Somalia and Uganda is skyrocketing, yet the WFP is grappling with budget shortfalls, making it tough to aid those in desperate need.

“Food access and other assistance are crucial for families and local economies,” Gupta highlighted. “This study sheds light on how damaging cuts in aid could be for food security and overall welfare in the region.”

In Somalia, millions face hunger and malnutrition amidst constant conflict and environmental woes.

Somalia’s food systems crumble under severe weather events, civil strife, environmental issues, soaring food prices, and deficient infrastructure. The WFP has ramped up its efforts, notably since the harsh drought from 2020 to 2023.

In January 2023, the WFP rolled out $45 million in cash and 7.1 metric tons of food to 4.1 million people, including vulnerable internally displaced individuals and local households. But a yawning funding gap of $378 million from November 2023 to April 2024 imperils aid for nearly half the population in need.

Gupta emphasized, “Reducing WFP assistance will hit local income hard, with every lost dollar of aid leading to a $2.63 drop in local income. Aid for Somalia’s internally displaced sparks economic ripples, benefiting non-recipients. Curtailments stifle these economic flows, worsening food insecurity in local economies.”

According to the study, less aid would mean beneficiaries could access no more than three food groups. Such poor dietary diversity could spell disaster, especially for kids and pregnant women.

The outlook for Uganda is equally alarming. Uganda hosts Africa’s largest refugee population, jumping from 390,000 in 2014 to 1.6 million in 2024. Most refugees are women, kids, and elders fleeing strife in places like South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, and Sudan. In 2023, WFP provided food aid to 1.4 million refugees.

Gupta noted, “Cuts in aid will likely plunge Uganda’s refugees’ Food Consumption Score, pushing many into the ‘borderline or poor’ dietary bracket.”

The Food Consumption Score, developed by WFP, gauges food group diversity and frequency over the previous week, weighted by the nutritional value of the consumed foods.

Next-generation economists

“Growing up in India, I was always curious about how the poor make decisions and their broader impact,” Gupta shared. “I’m committed to training future economists through hands-on research projects with my students, which is vital for them to apply their knowledge and make a global impact after graduation.”

Ph.D. candidates Deepak Kumar and Tao Qi collaborated with Gupta on this study.

“Working in a multi-organization environment taught me so much, offering hands-on experience in various research stages,” Kumar shared. “The skills and insights from this study are crucial as I progress with my dissertation, which will include a chapter on our Somali research.”

“Under Professor Gupta’s mentorship, I carried out extensive data analysis and paper writing,” Qi said. “He was incredibly supportive, motivating me to push through the inevitable challenges and setbacks of rigorous academic research.

“His guidance wasn’t just about providing answers but teaching me to find solutions independently, fostering self-reliance in my research abilities.”

This study was a collaborative effort involving the International Development and Research Associates, UC Davis, Kagin’s Consulting, and the United Nations World Food Program’s Regional Bureau in Nairobi, Kenya.

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