Nile River Basin Commission: Regional Tensions May Turn a Challenging Task Into an Impossibility
The saga surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is tangled with Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions, lighting up disputes along multiple fronts.
Embarking on the intricate mission of fair Nile River usage, the freshly minted Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) faces a rocky road. Conflicts simmering in the Horn of Africa add fuel to the fire.
October 13 marked a turning point as the Cooperative Framework Agreement on the Nile sprang to life, transitioning us from the old Nile Basin Initiative to something fresh. The pressure’s on the NRBC to hash out Nile water usage debates within half a year.
Dragging its feet for a decade on the CFA escalated tension among the Nile Basin states. Plus, the relentless row over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan now hooked onto Ethiopia’s Red Sea naval aspirations. All eyes on Somalia, the tempest’s center.
Countries with their fingers in the Nile River pie are watching closely.
Attribution: ISS
Clock’s ticking on the NRBC. Can they untangle this knot where others tripped? And will settling the score cool the regional disputes dotting the landscape?
The Nile row harks back to treaties from the last century (1929 and 1959), gifting Egypt control over Nile waters, leaving upstream neighbors in a lurch. Egypt and ally Sudan flexed both diplomatic and military muscle to hang onto their watery prize. Many global partners backed Egypt’s play, pushing for consensus efforts on projects along the riverbanks.
This worked a treat initially for Egypt until the CFA showed up in 2010. Then Ethiopia dipped its toe in the water, starting the Millennium, now the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, while Egypt rode the Arab Spring wave.
Egypt’s clinging to the Nile in times of water woe, while Ethiopia sees the dam as a silver bullet for its growth woes. Both nations often seek allies among fellow Nile Basin countries to hedge their bets.
Data Source: World Development Indicators
The Nile debacle also stirs ripples in Sudan and Egypt when Sudan eyes Ethiopia’s side of the fence. Sudan’s take on the Nile splits the difference: solving floods in Khartoum and tackling power shortages, while sticking with Egypt as part of their joint Nile venture.
Eritrea played the regional chessboard during its dust-up with Ethiopia over borders, siding with Egypt to nudge Ethiopia. Other Nile nations quietly sided against colonial accords by endorsing the CFA. South Sudan jumped on this bandwagon in 2024.
Numerous attempts to square the circle include a 2015 principles declaration, tripartite talks, and international facilitation, yet each effort tripped over favoring one side.
By 2018, GERD was nearly a done deal, pivoting negotiation to shared dam management – something Ethiopia balked at. The CFA hands the baton to the NRBC to puzzle out Nile water governance among all Basin countries.
Partial mediation flaws mar prior GERD peacemaking attempts.
Now embroiling Ethiopia, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, this tangled web combines sovereignty squabbles, water woes, Red Sea nautical natter, border friction, and global angles. Disagreements ripple beyond the river’s banks when domestic troubles in the basin nations bubble – as seen in Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
A game-changer came when Ethiopia unexpectedly inked a deal with North Western State of Somalia for sea access, surprising regional neighbors like Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia.
Taking advantage of this, Egypt’s stepping up to replace Ethiopia in Somalia’s new African Union mission, which isn’t sitting well with troop-contributing countries, especially Ethiopia. On October 10, leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia vowed to jointly protect Somalia’s independence and cooperate on maritime matters.
These scenes set the stage for serious woes, as Egypt stakes a claim near regional firestorms, potentially shifting strategies or exploiting conflicts stretching from Ethiopia to Somalia and Sudan.
Ethiopia and Egypt’s showdowns in Somalia call for bold, united mediation.
An armed clash isn’t brewing, but Egypt’s circling Ethiopia, forging closer ties with Somalia and Eritrea, backing the Sudanese Armed Forces, and cozying up to South Sudan. The White Nile’s Jonglei Canal, a water endeavor, serves Egypt’s interests amid uncertainties.
This drama strains Somalia’s federal relations and hampers regional anti-terrorism efforts. Based on Ethiopia’s past GERD tactics, this quarrel’s far from curtains.
The NRBC inherits a complex conundrum, and settling the Nile dilemma amidst regional rowdiness appears a tall order for the ambitious commission. The interwoven existential issues for Ethiopia and Egypt demand a robust, cooperative intervention.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
