Exclusive: AFRICOM Leader Reports Islamic State’s Size in Northern Somalia Has Doubled

FILE – U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, at the helm of U.S. Africa Command, partakes in a military drill in Agadir, Morocco, May 30, 2024.

The Islamic State in Somalia has doubled its strength in the past year, reveals the head of U.S. Africa Command in a chat with VOA.

“Northern Somalia is on my radar due to the uptick in ISIS numbers,” AFRICOM commander Gen. Michael Langley mentioned in a candid interview, using the acronym for the terrorist group.

Langley refrained from disclosing the U.S.’s exact figures on Islamic State fighters in Somalia but noted the group’s numbers have “roughly doubled” over the last year. Prior assessments have pegged the count of fighters in northern Somalia at around 200.

The AFRICOM boss also cautioned about the potential surge of foreign fighters joining Islamic State in Somalia.

Somali Brigadier General Abdi Hassan Hussein, ex-intelligence and police chief of Northeastern State (where the group is located), had earlier suggested to VOA that the foreign fighter numbers alone could reach the hundreds. Local authorities have yet to ratify this estimate.

A U.S. representative informed VOA in June that Abdulqadir Mumin, the figurehead of Islamic State in Somalia, was targeted in a May American airstrike. It appears Mumin survived the hit.

Queried on whether Mumin now leads IS globally, Langley expressed that the U.S. views such reports as “believable.”

“ISIS declares it, and sometimes, you just have to heed those declarations,” he noted.

Al-Shabab

The resurgence of Islamic State fighters in northern Somalia coincides with al-Qaida’s ally, al-Shabab, capitalizing on political squabbles between Somalia and Ethiopia to fuel their recruitment.

Ethiopia, landlocked, and Somalia’s secessionist North Western State of Somalia region inked an understanding earlier this year to utilize the Red Sea port of Berbera. Somalia has dismissed this accord. On Friday, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia before the U.N. General Assembly of actions that “blatantly breach” Somalia’s territorial sovereignty.

“They’ve exploited that dispute for their gain,” Langley shared with VOA.

Al-Shabab, sustained by robust funding and fervent recruiting, has swollen its ranks to between 12,000 and 13,000 fighters, senior defense officials told VOA in June.

This diplomatic fallout has trickled into counter-terrorism collaborations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, with Langley pointing out that Somali operations with Ethiopia have been “restricted.”

“Time will reveal if they can reconcile and form a highly effective force, since together, they efficiently clear out al-Shabab,” he remarked.

FILE – Al-Shabab fighters patrol on a truck in Mogadishu, Somalia, Oct. 30, 2009.

Al-Shabab continues its spree of civilian attacks, particularly in the Mogadishu vicinity. The faction claimed responsibility for an August gun assault and suicide bombing that caused 32 deaths at a popular beach in the Somali capital. Additionally, they are suspected in two lethal bombings on Saturday—one in the Middle Shabelle region and another near the president’s office.

Despite suffering defeats from Southern Somalia to the Juba River Valley, al-Shabab attempts to regroup and counterattack in those regions.

However, in central Somalia, al-Shabab has clawed back gains made by Somali forces over the past two years. The government’s inability to maintain retaken territory, noted senior U.S. defense officials.

“A credible holding force is crucial, as shadow governments of al-Shabaab might reappear and sway regional leaders,” Langley emphasized.

He highlighted the critical post-liberation phase where Somalia and partners like the U.S. Agency for International Development can introduce local services, bolstering public trust in the federal government.

“If they can’t maintain that because they’re moving to the next area, it wanes,” he added, indicating that U.S. training is now geared towards aiding Somali forces in retaining liberated ground.

The Somali administration has flagged the El Dheer and Harardhere regions as evidence of sustained government control in reclaimed central territories.

ATMIS transition

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) will exit the country later this year after aiding Somalia against al-Shabab terrorists for nearly two years. In 2025, it’ll be succeeded by a new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia. The African Union and the United Nations are still deciding on the mission’s composition.

Langley clarified that there’s no U.S. involvement in this transition, maintaining that American forces will continue their advise-and-assist role.

“Our support doesn’t include boots on the ground. We’re there for advising, assisting, and training, but the fight is theirs,” he told VOA.

Houthi-mobilized fighters parade during a ceremony marking the 10th anniversary of the Houthi takeover in Sanaa, Yemen, Sept. 21, 2024.

Houthis

Beyond al-Shabab and Islamic State, Somalia also faces the threat of Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, located just across the Gulf of Aden. Langley indicates these militants have “intentions” to ally with al-Shabab.

“We’re vigilant because this could quickly escalate into a hostile environment,” he noted.

If the Houthis and al-Shabab exert pressure on both sides of the Gulf of Aden, Langley fears it could choke a critical trade route, impacting global commerce. Analysts worry the Houthis may bring more advanced weaponry into the Somali conflict.

Houthi fighters have attacked over 80 commercial vessels with missiles and drones since the Gaza war began in October, seizing one, sinking two, and killing four sailors. Other projectiles have been intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition in the Red Sea or fell short of their targets.

The Houthi offensive started after Israel launched retaliatory strikes against Hamas in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attack, with Houthis claiming solidarity with the Palestinians in the conflict.

Harun Maruf and Mohamed Olad Hassan contributed to this report.

Edited by: Ali Musa

Axadle international–Monitoring