Rising Tensions: Egypt’s Arms Shipment to Somalia and Its Implications

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AXADLE) – The already delicate security situation in Somalia deepened yesterday following the landing of two C-130 aircraft from Egypt at Mogadishu airport. These military planes brought with them a substantial consignment of arms, munitions, and troops.

Sources within Somali security circles familiar with the operation report that the planes touched down on Tuesday morning, signaling a controversial escalation in the military alliance between Egypt and Somalia, which aims to “bolster military collaboration.” The arrival of arms has stirred unease amid escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

The backdrop for this delivery includes a contentious Memorandum of Understanding that surfaced between Addis Ababa and Somaliland on January 1, 2024 – a decision met with fierce opposition from Somalia’s Government based in Mogadishu.

Local officials are expressing apprehension, concerned that the newly delivered arms might be funneled into the hands of freshly formed clan militias based in Mogadishu.

Reports suggest a newly constituted militia, totaling around 500 members, is set to receive these weapons. Allegedly, they were recruited under the auspices of Maslah, a relative of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Yet, there are growing worries about how these recruits were selected in the first place.

Several members of the Somali military are raising red flags regarding the selection criteria, claiming it reflects clan affiliations rather than merit. “The selection process seems to hinge on clan connections. Many were enlisted solely based on their ties to the President’s sub-clan,” one insider shared.

A clan elder, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for safety, recalled a pivotal meeting where President Hassan promised to establish a 2,000-member militia for the clan during discussions in Middle Shabelle. “During our July meeting at Wargaadhi, concerns regarding the shortage of arms were raised. The President urged each sub-clan of the Waceysle to provide around 500 recruits and pledged to arm them,” the elder disclosed.

Complications, however, surfaced surrounding the militia’s formation. In mid-July, military supplies reportedly purchased from Ethiopia were confiscated by the Marehan militia in Abudwak, located within the Galgadud region.

These arms were allegedly intended for the newly organized militia operating under the President’s orders. Attempts by Internal Security Minister, Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail (Fartaag), to negotiate for their return with the Marehan clan have, thus far, hit a snag.

“We dedicated extensive hours to dialogue with local elders, politicians, and security officials aiming to ensure the weapons are not misappropriated. Yet, talks remain active,” Minister Fartaag remarked after his week-long visit to Abudwak.

Criticism has erupted regarding the arming of the militia. Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed voiced deep concerns, declaring, “We’ve seen a troubling surge in the flow of illegal arms into the nation, complicating our governance and prospects for peace.”

At a press conference in Mogadishu in late July, Sharif further warned against the peril of modifying military structures to empower specific clans and individuals. “Our past has taught us that military generals have often held sway over armed forces. Only through justice and inclusive governance can people be truly led,” he cautioned.

“No one should entertain thoughts of establishing a private army. I believed we had moved beyond this division, but it’s unfortunate it has resurfaced now,” he added.

Sharif alarmingly predicted that the continuous influx of arms might further destabilize Somalia, particularly as African Union forces prepare for a transition before a new mission in 2025.

Opposition leaders speculate that the ongoing militia armament could be linked to the forthcoming 2026 elections, intertwining with disputes over election methods and recent constitutional amendments that faced pushback from various factions.

Egypt’s involvement in Somalia’s turmoil is not a new occurrence. In 1995, Egyptian-backed Hawiye clan militias in Mogadishu engaged in conflict with rival groups after acquiring arms from Cairo, leading to fierce battles with the Rahanweyn militia in Baidoa.

That same year, the heavily armed extremist faction Al-Itihaad Al-Islami initiated attacks on Ethiopian border towns. Moreover, in the northeastern area now recognized as Puntland, discontent emerged against an Egyptian-mediated agreement in 1997, which assembled Somali warlords at a Cairo conference while Somaliland proclaimed its separation.

Puntland’s Interior Minister, Abdi Farah Said, expressed worries that Egypt’s rekindled involvement could reopen old wounds. “Back in ’97, when northeastern clans convened in Bosaso, Egypt invited warlords to Cairo, undermining local peace efforts,” he remarked.

This Cairo conference ultimately deemed 13 rival warlords from Mogadishu as victors in the devastating civil strife, which catalyzed the formation of Puntland’s semi-autonomous state.