Despite Somalia’s objections, Ethiopia convenes the TCC meeting to discuss its involvement in the new peacekeeping mission.

At the African Defense Ministers Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, military brass from across the continent gathered to chat about pivoting from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the fresh African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

Mogadishu (AX) — On October 16, 2024, amidst explicit disapproval from Somalia, Ethiopia hosted a confab of Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) involved in ATMIS. The hoopla took place during the African Defense Leaders Conference in Addis Ababa, helmed by Aisha Mohammed, Ethiopia’s Defense Minister. Attendees included defense heads from Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, and Uganda, all ruminating over the handoff from ATMIS to AUSSOM.

Previously, the Somali government proclaimed Ethiopia persona non grata for future peacekeeping missions, spurred largely by Ethiopia’s dicey arrangement with North Western State of Somalia. This MoU gave Ethiopia access to Berbera’s strategically vital Red Sea port, intensifying friction throughout the Horn of Africa. Somalia sees this deal as a full-on infringement of its territorial integrity since North Western State of Somalia lacks international recognition as a sovereign entity. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud didn’t mince words, branding it as an "unacceptable encroachment."

In a plot twist, Egypt has jumped into Somalia’s security mix, nurturing a budding bromance with Mogadishu. Recently, the Somali government rolled out the welcome mat for Egyptian military advisors and troops under a defense pact hammered out in August. These advisors are already lending a hand to Somali forces, especially along crucial supply routes frequented by Ethiopian battalions. The bourgeoning Somali-Egyptian military camaraderie heaps more strain on already fraught Somalia-Ethiopia relations, with Ethiopia viewing Egypt’s encroachment as a direct affront.

Former Somali Federal Minister Abdi Aynte went on record saying, "For Ethiopia to mug that it’s just another TCC in Somalia contributing to ‘peacekeeping’ is the height of irony. On one hand, Ethiopia’s tearing Somalia apart, and on the other, it birthed the storm that is Al-Shabaab due to its heavy-handed incursion between 2007 and 2009."

Despite Somalia’s fiery protestations, Ethiopia’s decision to drum up this meeting comes off as a strategic gambit to carve out its niche in Somalia’s morphing peacekeeping playbook. Meanwhile, an alliance involving Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea rose like a phoenix, cemented at a recent shindig in Asmara. The trio’s mission? To counter Ethiopia’s regional ambitions and safeguard interests in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a crucial waterway funneling a hefty slice of the world’s commerce.

The latitude tango between Ethiopia and Somalia saw Ethiopian forces commandeering airstrips in Somalia’s tempestuous Gedo region, further fraying ties. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has cried foul, accusing Ethiopia of stirring up clan militias to chip away at federal sway. Accusations also flew against Ethiopian forces in Somalia under ATMIS for thwarting Egyptian deployments to pivotal zones.

Within the Horn’s ever-evolving geopolitical theater, Somalia’s focus has shifted from battling Al-Shabaab to jostling for regional supremacy. Experts wave red flags that diplomatic squabbles might buoy Al-Shabaab, which is already styling itself as the nationalist bulwark against Ethiopian "occupation" in Somalia, turning stabilization efforts into a sticky wicket.

Ethiopia perceives Egypt’s maneuvers in Somalia as a stark threat, not only because of their longstanding face-off over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) but also because Egypt’s support to Somalia could rejigger the regional power balance. Egypt has been busy dispatching troops and advisors to help Somalia shore up its security defences and take on Al-Shabaab.

While Ethiopia’s geopolitical chess game hogs the limelight, transitioning from ATMIS to AUSSOM is packed with fiscal and operational question marks. Africa Union’s peace thrusts in Somalia have long suffered from penny-pinching, and leaders at Addis Ababa’s meetup vouched for sustainable buck for AUSSOM, hinting it’s short by a cool $100 mil.

Europe’s Union, a deep-pocketed ATMIS benefactor, has voiced disquiet vibes over what lies ahead for AUSSOM, especially with all the geopolitical crossfire between Somalia and Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s involvement in AUSSOM without Somalia’s blessing might throw a spanner in the works, muddling its mission to anchor Somalia and sideline Al-Shabaab as a major menace.

Meanwhile, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud motored off on a regional diplomatic jaunt, aiming to bolster bilateral ties and security alliances before waving off ATMIS troops.

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring