Despite Billions in Aid, Somalia’s Army Struggles as Al-Shabaab Resurgence Gains Ground

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Imagine a nation fighting a relentless tide, where billions in international assistance seem like a mirage against a desert sun. This is Somalia’s ongoing battle against Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group staging a fierce resurgence despite years of relentless effort from the government and global backers.

On July 7, in a bold display of defiance, Al-Shabaab fighters, supported by a suicide bomber in an explosive-laden vehicle, overtook the town of Moqokori. It wasn’t just a strategic victory, but a symbolic one. As Omar Mahmood from the International Crisis Group puts it, they conquered a town defended by what had been considered the government’s most formidable local militia against them.

For those familiar with Somalia’s turbulent history against this insidious threat, it’s a story of ebb and flow. Since the mid-2000s, the government has been wrestling with Al-Shabaab, navigating a shrinking pool of international support, a demoralized military, and endemic political infighting.

Once celebrated for their victories in 2022-23 over Al-Shabaab, capturing about 200 locales, the government’s reliance on local militias—or “Macwiisley”—revealed its vulnerabilities. The current counteroffensive by Al-Shabaab has recaptured nearly 90 percent of that territory, as noted by Rashid Abdi from Sahan Research. What happened to these towns, such as Masaajid Cali Gaduud and Adan Yabal, once symbols of hope?

I remember a time when people believed in the stabilization model. These dreams now lie in ruins, much like the three vital bridges along the Shebelle River, demolished and cutting the essential lifeline for military supplies.

The geographical stretch northwest to southwest of Mogadishu falls largely under Al-Shabaab’s control now, according to Abdi. He pointed out that favoritism under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government weakened clan cooperation, a critical pillar of the campaign’s initial success.

A local militia member from Hiiraan shared a poignant anecdote: the initial fierce mobilization when the president took charge versus today’s disheveled mobilization efforts. “When you lose the leaders, you lose the fight,” he reflected with a weary voice.

Still “in development mode,” the Somali National Army struggles not just with the enemy but with its identity and purpose. Their pride, the US-trained “Danab” commando unit, excels at engagements but falters in holding ground, showing cracks in morale and leadership losses.

In Somali politics, clan rivalries create a complex web when attempting any form of national unity, leaving the military adrift in its wake. President Mohamud’s renewed military promises remain overshadowed by ambitions for the nation’s first widespread election, a move many deem impractical amidst existing security threats.

A Western diplomat, bound by confidentiality, expressed skepticism: “Elections could turn into a bloodbath rather than a democratic celebration.” Even in the heart of Mogadishu, polling stations can’t escape the specter of violence.

“Political distractions over security efforts have deeply undermined potential progress,” commented former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, speaking out with fervor to underscore missed opportunities.

Although not directly attacking the capital, Al-Shabaab has made its presence felt through increasing pot-shots at strategic locales and nearly effecting a high-profile assassination attempt on President Mohamud in March.

It’s staggering to think that this group wields not just military might but economic power, out-maneuvering the state by taxing more effectively and amassing wealth that fuels their insurgency.

Amidst dwindling faith, Somalia’s international allies express fatigue. With over $7 billion invested in security missions since 2007, the question echoing in donors’ minds is stark: “What have we truly achieved?”

Though a fresh AU mission emerged recently under the moniker AUSSOM, the frustration from seeing only partial funding prospects, especially from Washington, further clouds the future. Mahmood notes a potential funding dip in 2025 that could leave Somalia’s security on precarious ground.

New ties with nations like the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt, alongside Turkey’s deployment of troops and drones, offer some hope. However, these nations seem more inclined to safeguard interests like a proposed Turkish spaceport rather than fronting the fight against Al-Shabaab.

So, we stand at a crossroads. Can Somalia pivot and regain momentum, or will the relentless tide sweep further? This struggle is not merely military but a testament to the endurance of a nation battling its demons.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.