There’s a vivid reminder of the fragility of peace in Somalia. On March 18, a bomb blast narrowly missed President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy, underscoring the ever-present danger posed by Al-Shabaab within Mogadishu itself. This incident serves as a wake-up call, illustrating the volatile nature of a conflict that many believed was nearing resolution.
Just days earlier, Somali security forces, perched on their open trucks, stood sentinel by the Syl Hotel. This location has become a grim testament to the ongoing threat from the al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab. The jihadist group has shown signs of resurgence, clawing back territory and rekindling fears that had been, for a time, somewhat abated thanks to a vigorous government effort in 2022 and 2023 supported by international partners.
Now, with an unsettling shift, the gains made by these allies seem to be slipping away. As always, the specter of Al-Shabaab looms large, with the group maneuvering to seize pivotal locations in the Middle and Lower Shabelle—the twin coastal regions flanking the capital. This raises a crucial question: Is international support wavering just when it’s needed most?
Consider this: President Mohamud, demonstrating resilience, traveled to Middle Shabelle in a high-profile campaign against the extremists. Yet, almost as if to mock his efforts, the group captured the center of Masaajid Cali Gaduud, a key town, shortly after his visit. “There were explosions and heavy gunfire this morning,” recounted Abdulkadi Hassan, a resident of a nearby village. “The Somali government forces and local community militias have retreated from the town, and Al-Shabaab is now in control.”
These developments are not isolated. According to Matt Bryden, a co-founder of Sahan, a group renowned for its conflict analysis, the Somali government appears to be on the back foot. They’ve lost critical strategic points, including several vital bridges in Lower Shabelle. “We see the evidence of an army in disarray and in retreat,” he observes. In a bid to stanch the tide, the government is enlisting clan militias, police, and even prison guards.
One can’t help but wonder, is this a desperate gamble or a calculated strategy? “People in Mogadishu are starting to fear that the government may not be capable of securing the city,” Bryden warns. It evokes the haunting potential of Al-Shabaab encircling, or worse, overrunning Mogadishu—a nightmare scenario for any resident of this beleaguered city.
Yet, President Mohamud speaks with defiance, having set up a temporary command center 220 kilometers north of Mogadishu. “The war will not stop, we are not retreating; victory will be ours,” he told troops in nearby Adale. His words are resolute, yet they must contend with a new and daunting challenge—a potential reduction in international support.
While the African Union’s efforts began in 2007 in support of Somalia’s government, leading to the creation of the world’s largest multilateral peacekeeping force, uncertainty lurks. The AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has been renewed, yet the continued financial backing from Washington remains in question. Bryden suggests, “Security assistance is being cut, particularly from America, and likely from Europe too.” This could tilt the scales ominously in Al-Shabaab’s favor by mid-year.
Contrary voices, however, suggest that Al-Shabaab’s threat isn’t an immediate march toward the heart of the capital. Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group hints that the government’s faltering focus, tangled in political issues and clan grievances, has created an opportunity for the extremists. “The country is not united now,” he explains, with current tensions intertwined with the president’s efforts to introduce direct elections.
With politics and constitutional reform taking precedence, Mahmood asserts, “Shabaab saw an opportune time to strike… But it’s still a long-term war, closer to a stalemate than a decisive shift.” Could it be that a return to status quo, a mere pause rather than resolution, is what awaits Somalia?
Edited By Ali Musa Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
