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By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.MOGADISHU, Somalia— Somalia’s political class is entering the latter half of 2025 in a state of uneasy turbulence, as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud maneuvers to consolidate authority over fractious federal states, al-Shabab militants press their insurgency in the heartland, and external powers recalibrate their strategies in the Horn of Africa.
The convergence of political brinkmanship, security volatility, and foreign policy strains has left Somalia once again at a familiar crossroads—trapped between fragile gains and mounting risks.
Federal Feuds and a Power Game in Mogadishu
President Mohamud, midway through his second nonconsecutive term, has accelerated efforts to reshape Somalia’s federal architecture ahead of elections expected in 2026.
His government’s endorsement of a new “Northeast State”—born of the merger between SSC-Khatumo and Maakhir—was pitched as a long overdue step toward constitutional clarity.
But the move drew a sharp rebuke from Puntland, which accused Mogadishu of encroaching on its territorial authority.
Analysts say the maneuver is less about governance and more about electoral arithmetic ahead of the 2026 vote. “It’s a calculated play to redraw the map before universal suffrage is tested,” said one Nairobi-based political observer.
“But it risks deepening mistrust between the federal center and the regions.”
These secessionist ripples trace back to constitutional reforms proposed in March 2024—advocating universal suffrage and enhancing presidential powers—spurring Puntland’s public withdrawal of recognition from the federal government, and Jubaland’s subsequent severing of ties following a regional third-term re-election.
Concurrently, renewed violence has flared between federal forces and Jubaland troops in the Gedo region, especially around Bula Hawa and Dolow, across Kenya and Ethiopia borders..
Clashes broke out after the federal government airlifted troops and military equipment from Mogadishu to the flashpoint Gedo region last month, in what appeared to be an effort to reassert authority as plans emerged to form a rival parallel regional state.
Meanwhile, Jubaland, already estranged, has deepened its opposition, accusing the federal center of manipulating security deployments to tilt the political balance.
Al-Shabab’s Enduring Threat
If the political stage is fraught, the battlefield is no less combustible.
Al-Shabab fighters launched a major offensive in February, seizing towns and villages across Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions. In July, militants mounted a surprise offensive to seize Mahaas, a key government stronghold in central Somalia.
PHOTO; Al-Shabaab seize Goobo village of Maxaas town, central Somalia early this month.
The fall of the town dealt a psychological blow to federal forces and allied local militias, even as AUSSOM—the African Union’s successor mission to ATMIS—launched counterattacks alongside Somali troops.
Meanwhile, government and AU-backed forces, including Uganda’s troops under the AUSSOM mandate, launched an offensive in early August to reclaim Bariire from al-Shabaab.
Reports confirm over 120 militants killed, weapons caches seized, and ongoing stabilization operations.
The African Union’s new Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is attempting to reinforce Somali forces after the drawdown of the long-running ATMIS mission. But progress is uneven, and the insurgency continues to sap state authority.
These fluctuations unfold against a broader insurgency known as the 2025 Shabelle offensive, initiated in February, which has included coordinated al-Shabaab attacks, some temporary territorial gains, and a failed assassination attempt on President Mohamud in March.
A foreign diplomat in Nairobi described the struggle as a “stalemate of exhaustion”:
“Neither the government nor al-Shabab can achieve outright victory. But both can inflict enough disruption to prevent the other from consolidating.”
Capital Unrest and Media Pressure
In Mogadishu, recent clashes over evictions left several civilians dead, exposing the fragility of order in the capital.
At the same time, journalists have reported increased harassment and assaults, raising concerns over shrinking space for independent reporting.
Rights groups report an uptick in harassment and assaults against reporters covering corruption, displacements, and battlefield setbacks.
“Beating, handcuffing, forcing to lie under the scorching sun and humiliating a reporter for doing his job is a blatant attack on press freedom and a human rights violations,” said Abdalle Mumin. the Secretary-General of the Somali Journalists Syndicate.
The North Western State of Somalia Question and U.S. Politics
The international arena has also injected new uncertainties.
A recent call by U.S. Senator Ted Cruz to recognize North Western State of Somalia has stirred debate in Washington and consternation in Mogadishu.
Somalia’s government issued a cautious response, stopping short of direct confrontation with Washington but warning against “destabilizing gestures.” China, keen to limit American inroads in the Horn, swiftly condemned the proposal.
North Western State of Somalia, for its part, has seized on the moment to highlight Berbera’s geostrategic value amid growing competition between Western powers and China in Djibouti.
For Mogadishu, the episode underscores a central dilemma: how to maintain sovereignty claims while depending heavily on Western security and financial support.
Shrinking International Bandwidth
Somalia’s delicate balance is complicated further by shifting Western priorities.
The Trump administration’s recent cuts to counterterrorism funding and troop support have weakened elite Somali units like Danab, leaving gaps filled partly by Turkish advisors and equipment.
While Ankara’s drones have proven effective on the battlefield, they have also drawn criticism over civilian casualties.
“The foreign footprint in Somalia is changing,” said a regional security analyst.
“The U.S. is stepping back, Turkey is stepping in, and Gulf states continue to compete quietly through proxies. That creates volatility rather than stability.”
A Nation on the Edge
Somalia remains emblematic of the region’s paradoxes: a fragile state attempting democratic reform, a government besieged by insurgents yet emboldened by external patrons, and a people caught between chronic displacement and fleeting hope.
The months ahead will test Mogadishu’s ability to manage federal dissent, hold territory against al-Shabab, and reassure wary international partners.
For now, the trajectory is unsettled.
Somalia’s political maneuvering may redraw maps on paper, but its deeper challenge is unchanged: forging a state resilient enough to survive the storms both within and beyond its borders.
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Abdi Guled is a Horn of Africa analyst and journalist with a focus on political risk, armed groups, and geostrategic competition in fragile states.
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