Al-Shabaab’s Strategic Advances Toward Mogadishu: A Complex Security Challenge

MOGADISHU, Somalia — In recent developments, the militant group al-Shabaab has intensified its operations across southern and central Somalia. The group’s ability to reclaim critical towns has significantly impacted the socio-political landscape, reversing years of territorial setbacks. This resurgence, detailed in a comprehensive report by The Soufan Center—a U.S.-based think tank specializing in global security—poses a profound challenge to stability in the region.

Just recently, on July 20, al-Shabaab fighters regained control over the towns of Sabiid and Anole in Lower Shabelle, southwest of the capital, Mogadishu. This strategic move comes on the heels of Ugandan and Somali government forces withdrawing after a ferocious series of suicide bombings that resulted in the tragic loss of at least 20 Ugandan peacekeepers. As of now, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) has remained reticent about the retreat, although officials have acknowledged the relentless pressure exerted by these al-Qaeda-linked insurgents.

The Soufan Center describes this situation as part of a broader campaign by al-Shabaab to “encircle Mogadishu,” effectively isolating the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).

The report underscores the significance of a shocking event in March 2025, when an assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took place right inside the capital. This brazen act highlights al-Shabaab’s expanding operational capacity and its potential reach.

Starting with the “Shabelle Offensive” in April, al-Shabaab has swiftly established control over territories in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. They claimed Moqokori, Tardo, and Gumare in July, seemingly meeting little to no resistance from Somali forces or allied clan militias. This move wasn’t just about territorial gain; it was also about engaging with local populations and re-establishing governance and taxation systems.

The report elegantly puts it: “These advances show not just military capability, but a deliberate attempt to restore al-Shabaab’s administrative footprint.”

Presently, the group controls a triangular expanse that encompasses Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable. This stronghold is strategically poised to disrupt key supply lines to Bulobarde and Jalalaqsi, currently under Djiboutian defense. The Federal Government’s response has been tepid. For instance, NISA announced a targeted airstrike on July 13 near Buq-Able, which reportedly neutralized seven militants. Yet, such actions are few and far between.

The U.S., a critical partner in Somalia’s fight against terrorism, has allocated a substantial portion of its 2025 efforts to counter Islamic State (IS) cells in Northeastern State. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals a pattern—over 30 U.S. strikes in northern Somalia this year, with less than 20 targeting al-Shabaab. This strategic focus has inadvertently allowed al-Shabaab to regroup and expand unabated.

Adding to this intricate situation are internal political rifts. Disagreements among Somali regions weaken a unified stance on security. For instance, the May 2025 National Consultative Conference witnessed boycotts by Northeastern State and Jubaland. The disagreement stemmed from disputes involving Villa Somalia and the contentious recognition of SSC-Khaatumo as a federal state, which has only magnified mistrust.

The absence of a united national front creates a vacuum that al-Shabaab is all too eager to exploit.

Reflecting on past achievements, the FGS proudly cites the recapture of over 200 locations, accomplished through the support of the U.S. and Turkey. Nonetheless, recent setbacks reveal the fragility of these victories. The Soufan Center warns that unless Somali authorities and international allies reassess and recalibrate their security strategies, al-Shabaab is poised to sustain pressure against state authority in the foreseeable future.

This analysis initially appeared on Axadle, informed by insights published by The Soufan Center, offering a sober reminder of the complex dynamics at play in Somalia’s quest for stability.