Federalism on the Edge: Khaatumo’s Rise, Villa Somalia’s Reach, and the Stakes for Somalia’s Future

EDITORIAL | At first glance, the sudden emergence of the SSC-Khaatumo administration in Laascaanood might seem just another chapter in Somalia’s lengthy and turbulent history. Yet, such a conclusion would be not only superficial but perilous. The situation in northern Somalia transcends mere borders or tribal lines. It challenges the very essence of federalism in Somalia, questioning if it can withstand a federal government that seems increasingly indifferent to the foundational structures of the post-conflict Somali state.

Earlier this week, Northeastern State, Somalia’s oldest and arguably most stable federal member state, issued a statement firmly rejecting the legitimacy of SSC-Khaatumo. This was no gentle reprimand; it was a clear and firm dismissal of a political project deemed illegal and destabilizing. Northeastern State stresses that there has been no lawful, inclusive, or constitutional process for SSC-Khaatumo to assert autonomy from Northeastern State, and until then, Sool and Cayn remain unequivocally part of the Northeastern State state.

“Until a general consultation conference is held… Sool and Cayn remain part of Northeastern State,” their statement pronounced.

But what makes this statement truly extraordinary is not just its wording—it’s the underlying warning. To Northeastern State, SSC-Khaatumo represents more than a separatist endeavor; it is a symptom of a deeper issue: Villa Somalia’s deliberate undermining of federalism. For a nation still in recovery from decades of collapse, such an accusation is severe.

To grasp the significance of this moment, it’s beneficial to revisit Somalia’s federal experiment origins. The fall of the central government in 1991 was more than a political collapse; it was societal disintegration. Warlords, clan militias, and Islamist courts filled the resulting vacuum. Amidst this chaos, some regions turned to federalism as a lifeline. It wasn’t imposed; it was born from communities striving for agency amid disorder.

Northeastern State was the pioneer in formalizing this vision, declaring itself a federal member state in 1998. It wasn’t an independence bid; it was a wager on Somalia’s future—a belief in the country’s potential resurgence through cooperation and mutual respect. This foundation enveloped six regions: Bari, Nugal, North Mudug, Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn.

Currently, Villa Somalia seems intent on altering this federal blueprint, sidelining elders, evading consultation, and endeavoring to integrate Sanaag and Haylaan into the SSC-Khaatumo project—ignoring vocal opposition from regional community leaders.

What heightens concern is that this isn’t an isolated incident. A disconcerting pattern is emerging.

Consider Jubaland. When its president adhered to constitutional election timelines and resisted an illegal term extension proposed by Mogadishu, the federal government reacted not with dialogue but with force, dispatching troops to Ras Kambooni. The operation aimed to reshape Jubaland’s leadership—and it failed. But the chilling implications remain: In Villa Somalia’s federalism model, local autonomy holds value only when aligned with central interests.

This model is not just undemocratic; it’s perilous. Recently, Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) announced the arrest of 82 suspected ISIS operatives spanning its major cities. These operatives allegedly trained in Northeastern State before orchestrating a regional terror plot across Ethiopia.

Such events should serve as a wake-up call. Ungoverned spaces, especially those born from political manipulation, do more than destabilize Somalia—they export insecurity.

Meanwhile, Laascaanood wages another kind of battle. SSC-Khaatumo asserts it represents the people’s will. North Western State of Somalia, echoing colonial-era borders, claims authority over Sool and Cayn. Yet, the people of these regions—particularly the elders and armed youth who expelled North Western State of Somalia forces—express allegiance to Northeastern State. They view SSC-Khaatumo not as a symbol of self-determination but a proxy for Mogadishu’s overreach.

Villa Somalia could have played a constructive role—a neutral mediator, a guardian of constitutional order. Instead, it has acted as a partisan provocateur. Rather than fortifying the federation, it injects volatility.

This returns us to Northeastern State’s position. This isn’t about drawing arbitrary lines. It’s about defending a principle. The 1998 social contract crafting Northeastern State was rooted in consultation and consensus. Altering it without a similar process isn’t merely illegitimate; it affronts the very essence of federalism.

If Villa Somalia persists in redrawing Somalia’s political map through clandestine channels, repercussions will extend far beyond Northeastern State. What commenced as a pledge of decentralized, inclusive governance rapidly morphs into a centralized order, reminiscent of the dictatorship Somalis once rejected.

Somalia merits better. It deserves a federal system that honors its promise—reflecting not just constitutional text but the spirit of its people.

Federalism in Somalia wasn’t bestowed from above. It emerged from below—through negotiation, sacrifice, and faith in a collective future. If Villa Somalia still believes in that future, it must listen—truly listen—to the peripheral voices.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring