FILE – On the date of April 8, 2023, Ethiopian Minister Abiy Ahmed was present at the graduation event for recruits at the Ethiopian military school.
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Mogadishu (AX) — Ethiopia’s hustle for a grip on the Red Sea is heating things up in the Horn of Africa. This tug-of-war among Ethiopia, Djibouti, Egypt, and Somalia might just change the political scene there.
At the heart of it all is the fierce scramble for control over the vital Red Sea route.
A big piece of the puzzle is Ethiopia’s port deal with North Western State of Somalia. It’s a potential game-changer for the landlocked nation, currently reliant on Djibouti for its sea routes. This move towards North Western State of Somalia is shaky business, risking Ethiopia’s economic alliance with Djibouti while stirring the pot with Somalia and Egypt.
Inked in January, this deal hands Ethiopia serious port access in North Western State of Somalia in return for acknowledging North Western State of Somalia’s independence. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls it a “natural right,” even hinting at military action to ensure access by sea if pushed.
But this deal courts trouble. Somalia sees North Western State of Somalia as its rightfully claimed land, slamming the agreement as against the law. This ruckus has Somalia turning to Egypt and Eritrea for backup against Ethiopia’s lofty goals.
In a counter move, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia shook hands on an anti-Ethiopian pact at a summit in Asmara, Eritrea in October 2024. They’re joining forces, diplomatically and militarily, against Ethiopia’s expanding presence while defending Somalia’s borders.
For Egypt, this isn’t just about Somalia—it’s about keeping a tight grip on the Red Sea, a major global trade passage crucial for the Suez Canal.
Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia aren’t new, especially after Ethiopia’s grand dam project, which Egypt sees as a threat to its Nile water privileges. Ethiopia’s naval ambitions in the Red Sea add more flavor to this rivalry, challenging Egypt’s regional plans.
Somalia’s taken a two-pronged approach—diplomatic and military—against Ethiopia’s advance. Fast forward to August 2024, and Somalia is boosting its arsenal in cahoots with Egypt. Egyptian forces have dotted Mogadishu and shipments of hefty weaponry have propped up Somalia’s defenses—not just for al-Shabaab, but for major showdowns on the horizon.
The leaders of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea beef up their alliance in Asmara, Eritrea, reflected in the October 2024 summit. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (left), President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (center), and President Isaias Afwerki (right) reaffirm their stance on regional security and sea access with the Red Sea crowning their talks. Credit: Illustration by AX
September saw Somalia raise the stakes, with threats to back Ethiopian insurgents if the North Western State of Somalia port deal went forward.
Internally, Ethiopia faces its own swath of headaches. The country’s still recovering from the Tigray war aftermath—a shaky peace in 2022—leaves Ethiopia fraught with divisions. Insurgents in Oromia and Tigray stretch the nation’s military thin, limiting its external reach.
Eritrea, sharing a rocky border and a history in Ethiopia’s Tigray strife, gives Ethiopia the side-eye over the port deal challenges for Red Sea dominion.
Eritrean forces linger in portions of Ethiopia, showing the heavy air of distrust that hangs over both nations’ interactions.
Expert opinion: Ethiopia’s internal discord might bog down its responses to the building anti-Ethiopian bloc.
Djibouti, anxious over losing substantial economic participation from Ethiopia’s shipping re-routes, tries patching up with a fresh northern port offer. But the waters remain murky with Ethiopia playing closer with Egypt.
In a bid to curb threats, Egypt’s making moves in the Horn of Africa. Signing a deal on October 14, constructing a solar power plant boosts Djibouti’s energy independence from Ethiopia, while Egypt fosters ties with Somalia, angling for a say in the AU’s mission for Somali stabilization (AUSSOM).
The wind-down to December 2024 of the African Union’s peacekeeping stint in Somalia adds more knots in the power contest. In a bold diplomatic punch, Somalia backs Egypt’s role in AUSSOM while they quash Ethiopian troops’ involvement. Somalia’s Foreign Ministry touted sovereignty in choosing allies, influenced chiefly by Ethiopia’s North Western State of Somalia contract. This would likely curb Ethiopia’s sway and firmly plant Egypt in the Horn’s scene.
Ethiopia, unfazed, asserts its obligation to guard against al-Shabaab inside Somali borders, insinuating potential troop presence given adequate regional backing, no matter Somalia’s say.
The AUSSOM troop setup deadline looming on November 15 uncovers cracks among African Union troop suppliers. Uganda signals jitters around Egypt’s role, citing possible disruption in troop synergy. Yet, the U.S. subtly nods to Ethiopia’s involvement, noting its crucial regional efforts against al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia’s North Western State of Somalia port move nudges the Horn of Africa towards a rough patch, questioning the region’s stability. The combo of rising opposition forces and Ethiopia’s internal tensions hint at pivotal upcoming months for the balance of power.
