The world is poised to face unprecedented heat in the coming five years, with a report from the UN’s weather agency highlighting that Arctic regions may warm at more than three times the global average.
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According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there’s an 80% chance that one of these next five years will set a record for heat levels. The report also anticipates that average warming will likely surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels.
Last year marked a significant turning point, as it was confirmed as the hottest year on record, leading to the first breach of the commitments set forth in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. This agreement aimed to curtail global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The WMO forecasts that from this year through to the end of 2029, global near-surface temperatures will likely be between 1.2 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than those recorded between 1850 and 1900. This change is predicted to exacerbate extreme weather conditions.
As the WMO articulated, “Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the oceans, and rising sea levels.”
In the Arctic, the anticipated warming trend is projected to accelerate ice melt in both the Arctic and the northwest Pacific Ocean. Specifically, the report forecasts that Arctic temperatures could rise more than three-and-a-half times the global average, soaring by 2.4 degrees Celsius above the average temperature taken over the most recent 30-year baseline period during the next five winters.
The WMO confirms that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels through the end of this decade. Additionally, above-average rainfall is expected in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia between May and September from 2025 to 2029. Contrarily, drier-than-average conditions are anticipated in the Amazon region during the same time frame.
“As we look to the future, the impacts of climate change are not just a possibility, but a reality we are already witnessing,” said a WMO spokesperson. Such insights remind us of the urgency with which we must address these challenges.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring.
