Geneva — The United States and Iran are set to open a new round of indirect talks in Switzerland aimed at averting a fresh spiral of conflict and ending weeks of threats, according to officials on both sides. The Geneva negotiations follow a U.S. military buildup across the region and repeated warnings from President Donald Trump that he is prepared to strike Iran if diplomacy fails.
The agenda remains contested. Washington wants the talks to cover Iran’s nuclear activities, its ballistic missile program and its support for armed groups hostile to Israel. Tehran has insisted the discussions stay limited to nuclear issues and that any agreement must include relief from U.S. sanctions battering its economy.
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In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump accused Iran of “pursuing sinister nuclear ambitions” and claimed Tehran has already developed missiles capable of threatening Europe and U.S. bases overseas, with efforts under way to build missiles that could reach the United States. Iran has publicly disclosed a maximum missile range of about 2,000 kilometers. The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service estimates Iran’s longest-range systems at roughly 3,000 kilometers—far short of the distance to the continental United States.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran must also negotiate over its missiles, calling Tehran’s refusal to discuss ballistic weapons “a big, big problem” on the eve of the talks. “The president wants diplomatic solutions,” Rubio added.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a cautiously optimistic note, saying he holds a “favorable outlook for the negotiations” that could move the region “beyond this ‘neither war nor peace’ situation.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation, called the meetings “a historic opportunity” and said a deal was “within reach.”
The United States will be represented by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law. Oman, which hosted a first round of talks earlier this month, is mediating. The two sides also met in Geneva last week.
The effort to restart diplomacy comes after a previous attempt collapsed last June when Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran, triggering a 12-day war that briefly drew in the United States to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Tensions spiked again in January as Iranian authorities cracked down on widespread protests at home—unrest that Trump repeatedly said he would “help” the Iranian people confront.
Regional analysts warn expectations across the Middle East are grim. “The region seems to expect a war at this point,” said Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In January, he said, “there was a big push by a number of Middle Eastern states to convince the U.S. not to” strike Iran. “But there’s a lot of apprehension at this point because the expectation is that this time” a war would be “bigger” than the one in June, he added.
On the streets of Tehran, opinion is divided. Residents who spoke to Agence France-Presse voiced anxiety over the costs of another confrontation but also weariness over the status quo. “There would be famine and people would suffer a lot,” said Tayebeh, a 60-year-old homemaker. “People are suffering now, but at least with war, our fate might be clear.”
Both sides say they prefer a negotiated outcome, but sharp disagreements over scope and sequencing—particularly on missiles and sanctions—could derail quick progress. For now, the Geneva channel offers a narrow opening to reduce the risk of miscalculation as military forces posture across the region and rhetoric hardens in Washington and Tehran.
Whether the talks can turn that opening into a durable de-escalation will hinge on bridging long-standing distrust and finding a formula that offers Iran meaningful economic relief while placing verifiable limits on the programs the United States and its partners see as most destabilizing.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
