The candidate of Poland’s ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO), Rafal Trzaskowski, is reported to be narrowly ahead in the second round of the presidential election, securing 50.3% of the votes according to an Ipsos exit poll for TVN, TVP, and Polsat.
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Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), follows closely with 49.7%, as indicated by the same poll.
Officials expect the final results to be announced tomorrow, although a late poll combining various results with exit surveys is anticipated to be released overnight.
Interestingly, both candidates proclaimed victory following the exit poll, reflecting the competitive nature of this election.
During his election night rally, Mr. Nawrocki declared, “Tonight we will win. We will win and we will save Poland.”
On the other hand, Mr. Trzaskowski, 53, campaigned with a promise to assist the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, in advancing their democratic reforms. “We aim to restore the checks and balances that have eroded under the previous nationalist government,” he stated.
In Poland, while Parliament wields significant power, the President has the authority to veto legislation. This election is being closely monitored not just in Poland, but also by neighboring Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and throughout the European Union.
Both candidates recognized the necessity for increased defense spending, as urged by U.S. President Donald Trump, and emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine in its ongoing struggle against Russia’s invasion. “Our security is intertwined with Ukraine’s future,” argued Mr. Trzaskowski, while Mr. Nawrocki expressed concerns about NATO’s potential involvement in conflict with Russia, claiming he would refrain from ratifying Ukraine’s NATO membership should he become President.
Social issues, particularly around abortion, also played a significant role in this election. Mr. Trzaskowski has advocated for easing Poland’s near-total ban on abortion, in stark contrast to the position held by outgoing nationalist President Andrzej Duda.
The outcome of this election could herald profound implications for Poland’s role in Europe and the advancement of LGBTQ rights. A triumph for Mr. Trzaskowski would signal a notable win for the progressive agenda championed by Prime Minister Tusk, potentially paving the way for significant social changes, including civil partnerships for same-sex couples.
In Poland—a fast-growing economy of 38 million—Presidents hold considerable sway, from vetoing legislation to serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. A victory for Mr. Nawrocki, conversely, could empower the populist PiS party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, and might lead to new parliamentary elections.
Supporters of Nawrocki often advocate for stricter immigration policies and emphasize conservative values, alongside a desire for enhanced sovereignty within the European Union. As the election unfolds, it serves as a critical test of the support for Mr. Tusk’s coalition government, especially following the surge of anti-establishment sentiment observed in the first round, held on May 18.
Historically, PiS has seen strong backing in rural areas, especially in the south and east of Poland, where conservative social values resonate more with voters. In contrast, the Civic Coalition appeals to liberal-leaning individuals in urban centers.
Agnieszka Prokopiuk, a 40-year-old homemaker, remarked, “We should not give in to European pressure. We need to make our own way and not succumb to trends from the West,” highlighting a sentiment echoed by many in smaller towns and rural locales.
Political expert Anna Materska-Sosnowska described the election as “a real clash of civilisations,” underscoring the stark policy differences between the two candidates. Supporters of Mr. Trzaskowski are pushing for deeper EU integration and swifter social reforms, with many voicing concerns over women’s rights, as articulated by Małgorzata Wojciechowska, a tour guide: “Polish women unfortunately do not have the same rights as our European friends. I hope Mr. Trzaskowski will reignite the debate on abortion, allowing us to live freely with our choices.”
The election is being closely scrutinized not only within Poland but also in Ukraine, which is seeking to solidify international diplomatic backing amid ongoing negotiations with Russia. Mr. Nawrocki, who admires U.S. President Trump, has expressed skepticism about NATO’s role in Ukraine, advocating limits on benefits extended to Ukrainian refugees residing in Poland. His campaign was tactically wrapped up with a tribute to Poles who perished at the hands of Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, saying, “It was a genocide against the Polish people.”
The final election result will likely depend on Mr. Trzaskowski’s ability to galvanize his supporter base and whether voters from the far-right ultimately decide to align with Mr. Nawrocki.
In the first round of voting, far-right candidates garnered over 21% of the vote, while Mr. Trzaskowski and Mr. Nawrocki were nearly tied, with respective shares of 31% and 30%. As the political landscape continues to evolve, these developments will hold significant weight for Poland’s future.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring
