Gaza’s Reconstruction, Between Vision and Reality: Why Rebuilding Will Take Decades
Mountains of rubble, thousands of unexploded munitions and a gutted web of water, sewage and power lines define Gaza’s landscape today. More than 80% of structures are damaged or destroyed, according to United Nations assessments, and the price tag to rebuild runs to more than $70 billion over several decades. Against that backdrop, a glossy vision of a “New Gaza” rising in three years—skyscrapers, beach tourism and data centers—has landed with a thud.
- Advertisement -
Unveiled by Jared Kushner to a room of delegates, the plan rests on the premise that “in the Middle East, they build cities in three years.” It is a promise sharply at odds with the engineering, humanitarian and political realities on the ground.
The rubble math is unforgiving
Gaza is home to 2.1 million people and an estimated 60 million tonnes of debris—the remains of homes, schools and businesses flattened by bombardment and bulldozers. Removing it safely is “a massive undertaking,” said Shelly Culbertson, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation who has studied post-conflict recovery in Gaza.
“By way of comparison, the rubble in Mosul (the Iraqi city formerly under the control of the Islamic State group) was about 15% of that in Gaza, and eight years on they’re still dealing with that issue,” she said. In Gaza, debris is extensive enough to fill nearly 3,000 container ships and is expected to take more than seven years to clear under optimal conditions.
The current pace is far from optimal. The United Nations Development Programme says it is removing and crushing around 1,500 tonnes per day across five sites. At that rate, it would take almost 110 years to process all the rubble.
Even so, the debris contains opportunity. “It can be blended back into building materials,” Culbertson noted. “If it’s done properly, there could be big opportunities for recycling it and using that rubble to help rebuild the future of Gaza.” Ali Shaath, the Palestinian former official chosen to administer Gaza under the U.S. plan, has even proposed pushing war debris into the Mediterranean to form new islands and land.
Hidden dangers: human remains and unexploded ordnance
Progress is slow in part because of what lies beneath. Gaza health authorities estimate the remains of up to 10,000 people may still be under the rubble. There is also a pervasive risk from unexploded ordnance (UXO).
“It’s everything from mortars, artillery shells and grenades, to improvised rockets and bombs and missiles,” said Mungo Birch, who heads the UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS) in the Palestinian territories. In the first three weeks of the ceasefire, the UN recorded 560 unexploded items in debris; thousands more are believed to remain buried. Former UNMAS Iraq chief Pehr Lodhammar has said roughly 10% of weapons typically fail to detonate and must be removed by demining teams. Analysts warn the job in Gaza could be riskier still, given the potential to trigger collapses of Hamas-built tunnels.
1.5 million people without homes
As clearance ramps up, the question of where people live—and for how long—grows urgent. At least 1.5 million Gazans, three-quarters of the population, are sheltering in tents or makeshift structures, many exposed to winter storms. Decisions made now on temporary housing will shape Gaza for decades, Culbertson said.
“There needs to be some sort of interim housing strategy that recognizes that people will be waiting multiple years for the longer term strategy,” she said. “Historically, once a camp is set up, it kind of lasts forever. The streets of the camp that were set up 50 years ago will be the streets of a neighborhood slum.”
Her proposal: accept that camps are inevitable, but design “future-oriented” ones laid out on residential blocks that can evolve into neighborhoods, with transport and utility links to nearby cities. In areas of total destruction, everything must be razed and rebuilt, often through contracts with large international construction firms.
That approach runs into a thorny problem: property rights. “Even before the war, property ownership was unclear in a lot of cases,” Culbertson said, citing a complex intermingling of Ottoman, British, Palestinian and Israeli law alongside informal claims. “Before clearing and rebuilding a neighborhood, you’d have to figure out who lives there, how to compensate them. It’s a huge challenge that needs to be addressed.”
Broken pipes, collapsed systems
Any reconstruction needs functioning foundations: water, sewage and power. The destruction to utilities is especially severe in Gaza City, where “more than 150,000 meters of pipes and approximately 85% of the water wells inside Gaza City have been destroyed,” the municipality reports.
Repair requires steel piping—material Gaza does not have and cannot easily import. Israel restricts steel as a dual-use item, UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq has said. The result: approximately 70% of Gaza City’s total water production is disrupted due to difficulties fixing the Mekorot water supply line from Israel into Gaza.
Security and space are decisive
The success of any rebuilding effort depends on security, stability and safe access for workers and materials—all in short supply. Despite assertions that a second phase of the ceasefire is underway, multiple violations are reported. On one recent day, at least 32 Palestinians, including children, were killed in strikes on a police station, houses and tents, according to health officials in Gaza. They say more than 500 Palestinians, most civilians, have been killed since the start of the truce. Israel says four Israeli soldiers have been killed by Hamas and other militants over the same period.
Even before the war, Gaza’s density—5,700 people per square kilometer—strained space for housing and services. Now Israeli forces occupy around half the enclave, with a “yellow line” of control reportedly moving inward, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Reuters. Under a 20-point plan promoted by former U.S. President Donald Trump, further Israeli withdrawals are tied to Hamas giving up its weapons. Hamas has agreed to discuss disarmament with mediators and other militant groups, but no formal proposals or timelines have been published.
Big promises meet hard constraints
Kushner’s three-year timetable has been greeted with skepticism, including from Palestinian economists. “The technical response is that it’s laughable, it’s fantasy,” said Raja Khalidi, a development economist who previously worked with the UN. “The scale (of the destruction) is unprecedented. The Americans have said the plan is the total reconstruction of Gaza, but it’s being done in a way that creates new divisions, not only in Gaza, but between Gaza and the West Bank.”
Kushner has suggested there is “no plan B” beyond his vision of a New Gaza of glass towers, data centers and advanced manufacturing zones. Khalidi rejects that premise. “There are multiple plans. We reviewed 12 of them in July. Six of them are Palestinian, six are global. Some of them have been working on plans for 20 years,” he said. “We see this guy come in with this idea of a ‘New Gaza’ and the Riviera, but who is this for? It’s not for us. It’s not really for the Palestinian people. The impetus and the vision for reconstruction and the planning has to come from the Palestinians.”
A generational rebuild
Strip away the rhetoric, and a sober sequence emerges. First, clear and recycle debris while safeguarding deminers and recovery crews. Locate and honor the dead. Map ownership and compensation to avoid entrenching future slums. Restore water and sewage systems with assured, secure access to restricted materials. Build purpose-designed interim housing that can transition into permanent neighborhoods. Ensure space, safety and predictability for workers and families.
None of that is impossible. All of it is time-consuming, expensive and contingent on political realities beyond engineering control. The numbers—60 million tonnes of debris, tens of thousands of unexploded munitions, 1.5 million people without homes, utilities in ruins—do not point to a three-year sprint. They point to a generational effort measured in decades, billions of dollars and patient, locally led planning.
The world has rebuilt shattered cities before. But Gaza will be rebuilt only if vision bends to the facts on the ground—and if those most affected are empowered to design the future they will inhabit.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
