TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on course for a sweeping victory in snap elections, with her ruling bloc securing a two-thirds majority in the powerful lower house, according to media estimates Sunday, a result likely to buoy her agenda while unnerving Beijing and financial markets.
Early projections show the Liberal Democratic Party winning about 300 of the 465 seats contested — up from 198 in the last vote — positioning Takaichi’s party to regain a stand-alone majority and possibly a supermajority without its junior partner, the Japan Innovation Party. If confirmed, it would be the LDP’s strongest showing since 2017 under Takaichi’s mentor, the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
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The newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance, an electoral pact between the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, was on track to lose more than two-thirds of the 167 seats it held, while the anti-immigration Sanseito party was projected by public broadcaster NHK to grow from two seats to as many as 14. Turnout in recent lower-house races has hovered in the mid–50 percent range, and heavy snowfall in parts of the country did not appear to alter that pattern.
Takaichi, Japan’s first woman to serve as prime minister, sought to frame the mandate as license to stabilize prices and accelerate investment. “We will prioritize the sustainability of fiscal policy. We will ensure necessary investments. Public and private sectors must invest. We will build a strong and resilient economy,” she said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed a “big victory,” adding, “when Japan is strong, the U.S. is strong in Asia.”
The win crowns a whirlwind ascent since October, when Takaichi took the LDP leadership and the premiership, reinvigorating a party that had bled support amid inflation and scandal. She has cultivated support among younger voters and leaned hard into alliance politics, receiving an endorsement two days before the vote from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called her “strong, powerful, and wise.” Takaichi thanked Trump on X and said she looked forward to a White House visit in the spring, calling the potential of the U.S.–Japan alliance “limitless.”
The economy remains her biggest test. Takaichi has rolled out a $135 billion stimulus to cushion households from rising prices and promised to suspend the consumption tax on food. But Japan’s debt exceeds twice the size of the economy, and yields on long-dated government bonds have climbed to record highs in recent weeks, stirring global market jitters. “With prices rising like this, what matters most to me is what policies they’ll adopt to deal with inflation,” said Chika Sakamoto, 50, at a Tokyo polling station. “Prices for just about everything are really going up, but incomes aren’t rising much,” she told AFP.
Some voters voiced concern about fiscal risks. “Various parties are proposing policies like abolishing the consumption tax,” said Taku Sakamoto, 49, also speaking to AFP. “While that might be fine for now, I’m very worried about whether such measures are truly responsible for the generations that come after us.”
Foreign policy could be an early flash point. Less than two weeks into her tenure, Takaichi — long viewed as a China hawk — suggested Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing moved to seize self-ruled Taiwan by force. China condemned the remarks, summoned Japan’s ambassador, warned its citizens about travel to Japan and staged joint air drills with Russia; Tokyo even saw its last two giant pandas returned to China last month. The episode appeared to lift Takaichi’s standing at home. “Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place,” said Margarita Estevez-Abe, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University. “So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China.”
Official results will take shape overnight. A commanding majority would give Takaichi breathing room to press her economic package and navigate a fraught regional landscape — tasks that will quickly test the momentum of Sunday’s win.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
