Russia has characterized Ukraine’s deployment of long-range ATACMS missiles within its borders as a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, dubbing it a “new phase of the Western war.” Promising a response of equal measure, Moscow is clearly on high alert.
On the momentous 1,000th day of war, Ukraine launched US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory, marking a bold move facilitated by the recent green light from the outgoing Biden administration.
According to Russian sources, five out of six missiles were intercepted as they targeted a military site in the Bryansk region. One missile managed to hit the facility, igniting a fire that was quickly extinguished, leaving no reported casualties or severe damage.
Interestingly, the Ukrainian military opted not to disclose their specific choice of weaponry at first. However, later confirmations from both a Ukrainian official and a US source acknowledged the use of ATACMS.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking during a G20 press conference in Brazil, remarked, “This is, without a doubt, a sign that they wish to intensify the conflict.” He asserted that this intensification designates a decidedly new chapter in the West’s ongoing war against Russia, to which they will respond appropriately, laying blame on Washington for facilitating Ukraine’s missile capabilities.
For quite some time, Russia has claimed that the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, is operated with direct support from US specialists using American satellite guidance.
It was just recently that President Joe Biden officially permitted Ukraine to deploy ATACMS against targets inside Russia—marking a controversial turning point in US military aid.
Moscow has framed this development as an enhancement of Washington’s role in the conflict, escalating tensions to a point where retaliation is not just possible, but expected.
This incident unfolded against a backdrop of profound fatigue and devastation felt across Ukraine. As the nation commemorated a grim milestone—1,000 days entrenched in combat—both troops and civilians grappled with ongoing aerial attacks, and uncertainty loomed regarding the continuation of Western support, particularly as Donald Trump gears up for a potential return to the presidency.
Experts note that while this missile strike may offer Ukraine a slight upper hand in negotiations, especially over recently reclaimed Russian territory, it likely won’t sway the overall trajectory of the war, which has persisted for 33 long months.
Russia has argued that using long-range missiles without direct logistical support from the US signals deeper American involvement—a concerning notion for Moscow.
Adding to these rising tensions, President Vladimir Putin has approved a revised nuclear policy that seemingly lowers the threshold for use, signaling that Russia may resort to atomic weapons in response to threats against its territorial integrity.
The US has shrugged off these updates, calling them typical of Russia’s irresponsible rhetoric.
The news of Ukraine’s missile strike prompted immediate market reactions, with European stock indexes dipping, while investors flocked to safer assets.
Simultaneously, Trump has voiced his skepticism regarding the scale of US military assistance to Ukraine, insisting he could quickly end the conflict—though he’s offered little clarity on how that would materialize.
It seems both sides are bracing for his potential return, with prospects for renewed peace talks—missing since the early days of the conflict—on the horizon. Recently, both Ukraine and Russia have upped the ante, hoping to fortify their bargaining positions ahead of any future negotiations.
In a Tuesday address to parliament, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the urgency of leveraging every resource for negotiations, asserting, “At this juncture, the outcome hinges on who emerges victorious—whether we overcome the enemy, or vice versa. This battle extends beyond ourselves, enveloping all who cherish freedom and abhor tyranny.”
As a somber tribute was planned later that day, the toll of the war became increasingly evident. Thousands of lives have been lost, over six million Ukrainians have sought refuge abroad, and the nation’s population has dwindled by nearly a quarter since Putin initiated his brutal invasion—one of the most devastating conflicts Europe has witnessed since World War Two.
While casualty figures remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates suggest that the toll has been catastrophic, with hundreds of thousands injured or killed on both sides.
General Oleksandr Syrkyi encapsulated the Ukrainian spirit amid such dire circumstances, stating, “In the frozen trenches of Donetsk and the scorching terrains of Kherson, we are engaged in a fight for our right to exist.”
Personal tragedies echo through every village and city; military funerals have become tragically commonplace, with many enduring sleepless nights filled with the horrors of air raid sirens.
In the conflict’s early days, Ukrainian forces managed to reclaim significant territory, pushing back Russian advancement from the outskirts of Kyiv. Yet as time has marched on, both sides have entrenched in a brutal stalemate marked by systematic trench warfare that has decimated eastern urban areas.
Currently, Russian forces hold one-fifth of Ukraine’s land, gradually expanding their grip over the last year.
Notably, Ukraine recently seized a small region in Russia’s Kursk area during its first significant cross-border operation since the war’s inception in August. In response, Russia appears to have stationed 50,000 troops nearby, attempting to reclaim that territory.
Adding another layer of complexity, Russia has reportedly deployed 11,000 North Korean troops—an action heavily criticized in the West—as Ukraine claims some of these forces have engaged in skirmishes in Kursk. Zelensky has indicated that this number could rise significantly.
Meanwhile, Russia continues its relentless campaign, making incremental gains across eastern Ukraine, recently proclaiming another village captured in Donetsk. Additionally, Moscow’s military has ratcheted up its assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure, firing 120 missiles and unleashing 90 drones in a strike reminiscent of earlier campaigns.
Despite these tensions escalating, there remains a vast chasm between the adversaries on key negotiating terms. Ukraine has consistently pushed for a total Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories, alongside security assurances from the West akin to NATO membership. The Kremlin counters with demands for Ukraine to drop its NATO aspirations and withdraw from provinces Russia claims to have annexed.
As Russian forces claimed another village amid rapid advancements in Donetsk, a somber attack in the Sumy region tragically left at least 12 dead, including a child, highlighting the ongoing human cost of this harrowing conflict.
As fighting continues and tensions escalate, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a stark warning against allowing Putin to gain the upper hand. “Allowing Russia to succeed will lead to a more emboldened adversary at our doorstep, and I firmly believe it won’t stop there,” he cautioned during a defense meeting in Brussels.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has passionately called for enhanced military support from allies, advocating for a robust approach to achieve a “sustainable” resolution to the war. “We will never yield to our occupiers, and the aggressors will face the consequences for their transgressions against international laws,” the ministry declared, aligning with the notion that strength, not appeasement, is essential for peace.
In a direct rebuke, Russia vowed to continue its military operation: “The campaign against Ukraine persists, and it shall reach a conclusion,” reiterated spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, even as fears of escalated nuclear threats loom larger.
In light of these developments, the EU’s outgoing top diplomat, Josep Borrell, urged member states to align strategically with the US, advocating for Kyiv to strike within Russia using long-range missiles provided by allies, a move echoing Biden’s recent approval for Ukraine’s missile campaigns.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
