How the EU’s anti-coercion weapon could be deployed against the U.S.

BRUSSELS — Pressure is mounting on the European Union to deploy its new anti-coercion instrument after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs of up to 25% on several European countries in a standoff over Greenland, a Danish territory.

Trump on Saturday vowed levies against EU members Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden — as well as non-members the United Kingdom and Norway — unless Greenland is ceded to the United States. The threat stunned European officials and immediately triggered calls in Brussels and Paris to consider the EU’s most forceful trade-defense tool, created in 2023 but never used.

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French President Emmanuel Macron signaled support for a firm response, while Valerie Hayer, leader of the liberal Renew group in the European Parliament, urged the European Commission to launch the instrument. “The United States is making a miscalculation that is not only dangerous but could be painful,” Hayer said in a statement. “The anti-coercion instrument is our economic nuclear weapon.”

At stake is whether the EU will activate a mechanism designed precisely for moments when a third country “applies — or threatens to apply — measures affecting trade or investment,” thereby interfering “with the legitimate sovereign choices” of the EU and its member states. The anti-coercion instrument empowers Brussels to impose import or export restrictions across the bloc’s 450 million–person single market and to curb access for targeted countries to public procurement and other services.

The European Commission last year considered wielding the tool amid difficult trade talks with Trump’s administration to avoid steep levies, but the sides ultimately reached a deal. This time, officials say, the precedent sets a clear path: If the EU opens a case, it will investigate and, if warranted, prepare countermeasures calibrated to deter or neutralize the pressure.

Services — where the U.S. runs a surplus with Europe — would likely be a focal point. Brussels has previously drawn up a list of U.S. services, raising the prospect that American tech giants and other service providers could face restrictions if the standoff escalates.

Activating the instrument requires a multi-step process. The Commission or member states can initiate it, but any move must win approval from at least 55% of EU countries representing 65% of the bloc’s population. Under the rules, the Commission would then have up to four months to investigate the alleged coercion. Member states would have eight to 10 weeks to back any proposal for action. Only after that would the Commission prepare measures, which could take effect within six months. The EU says the timetable is indicative and can be adjusted.

Even triggering an investigation would carry weight, signaling that the EU is prepared to respond to an ally with a tool devised after a bruising episode with China. The instrument’s creation followed Lithuania’s accusation in 2021 that Beijing effectively blocked its exports in retaliation for Vilnius allowing a Taiwanese diplomatic representation to open in the country.

For Denmark, which controls Greenland’s foreign and security policy, the stakes are uniquely sensitive. For the broader EU, the response will test whether the bloc can protect member states’ sovereignty while managing a high-stakes confrontation with its most important economic and security partner.

Officials caution that any measures would take time to design and that the EU remains open to de-escalation. But as calls grow in Brussels to at least open a formal probe, the message is clear: Europe is prepared to use its most powerful trade-defense instrument if the tariff threat over Greenland persists.

By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.