Germany will try to arbitrate a permanent solution to the Libyan crisis, as the sides will gather in Berlin to figure out a way to ensure that the country holds general elections in December.
Efforts to end a decade-long spiral of violence in Libya would bring the country’s transitional government, as well as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to Berlin for the personal UN-sponsored talks.
In a telephone conversation with Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush just days before the meeting, Blinken stressed “the United States’ commitment to increase diplomatic commitment to promote international efforts to support progress in Libya.”
Like the host’s German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Blinken and Mangoush went back to last year’s meeting and the commitments made but which have not been fully implemented.
The presidents of Russia, Turkey and France had then promised to stop foreign interference in Libya and withdraw foreign militants or troops.
Following these talks, a formal ceasefire was agreed until October last year, leading to the creation of a transitional government under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a presidential council led by Mohammad Younes Menfi, who has promised to hold votes.
However, the UN has warned that progress has stalled, especially on a key that is necessary in the polls – excerpts from all foreign soldiers.
Libya’s new unity government, the Government of National Unity (GNU), was elected through a UN-led process, on March 15, 2021. It stems from two rival political groups that ruled the country’s eastern and western regions and completed a smooth transition of power after a decade. of violent chaos. Dbeibah will lead Libya to the December 24 elections.
“Good chance” for elections In October, after Turkey-backed forces of the Internationally Recognized Government (GNA) based in Tripoli had controlled the forces of Eastern Putschist General Khalifa Haftar, the two camps agreed on a ceasefire in Geneva.
The security situation in Libya has slowly improved since then.
But the presence of an estimated 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries on Libyan territory is seen as a threat to the UN-backed transition leading up to the election.
Western leaders have repeatedly called on foreign fighters to leave.
But Russian mercenaries who support Haftar’s side in the east are still in place.
Turkey, meanwhile, has troops in Tripoli, sent under a bilateral agreement with the government, indicating that they are not affected by a request for foreign troops to leave.
In 2019, Ankara and Tripoli reached two separate Memorandum of Understanding, one on military cooperation and one on the maritime borders between the two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Diplomats stressed the delicate balancing act needed to ensure that neither party feels they are losing by withdrawing.
Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow in the Global Initiative and an expert on Libya, said Wednesday’s talks must go beyond a simple letter of intent if they are to have a real impact.
“Is there a mechanism for (the fighters) to leave? Are the Libyans pushing them to leave on the ground in reality? No,” he said.
But he expressed hope that the talks would provide concrete help for the upcoming election.
“Someone may come up with a good idea to agree on a constitutional basis in July and be on the verge of elections in December,” he said, referring to a key required for the votes.
“I think there are good chances (for elections before the turn of the year) and the Berlin process can help.”
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