Paris appeals court to rule July 7 in Marine Le Pen fraud case that could reshape 2027 race
A Paris appeals court will deliver its ruling on July 7 in a fraud case against far-right leader Marine Le Pen, a decision poised to set the course of France’s next presidential contest.
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The lower court last year imposed a five-year ban from public office on Le Pen, 57, over a fake jobs scheme at the European Parliament. If the appeals court upholds that verdict, the three-time presidential candidate would be barred from running in 2027 — the election widely seen as her best opening after two defeats to Emmanuel Macron.
At the end of proceedings, the court’s president said the judgment will be issued in the early afternoon.
Le Pen reached the runoff in 2017 and 2022, losing each time to Macron, who cannot run again after two consecutive terms. She has said she will decide whether to seek the presidency only after the appeals ruling and has signaled that her protégé, 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, could be the National Rally’s (RN) standard-bearer if she is sidelined.
A November poll suggested Bardella would win the 2027 second round regardless of his opponent, underscoring the stakes for France’s anti-immigration RN as it attempts to turn years of electoral momentum into power.
Prosecutors last week urged the appeals court to maintain the five-year ban and to impose a four-year prison sentence on Le Pen, with three years suspended, in the case involving her and other RN figures. In her first trial, she received a four-year sentence, with two years suspended.
The European Parliament fraud case — centered on alleged misuse of public funds through bogus parliamentary assistant roles — has shadowed Le Pen’s rise from fringe firebrand to mainstream contender. A confirmed ban would force the RN to formalize a succession plan sooner than expected and could cement Bardella’s rapid ascent from party chief to would-be presidential nominee.
The decision lands as France enters the long prelude to 2027, with the traditional left and right still struggling to consolidate and centrists preparing for a post-Macron landscape. Whether the appeals court overturns, softens or upholds the ban will define not only Le Pen’s personal future but also the shape of the broader field.
For now, the RN is publicly keeping both options open: a final Le Pen run if the ban is quashed, or a Bardella candidacy if it stands. Either way, the July 7 ruling promises to reverberate through French politics, clarifying whether the far right’s most recognizable figure remains in contention — or passes the torch at the moment of maximum opportunity.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
