Exceeding the 1.5°C Threshold Poses ‘Irreversible’ Risks to Our Climate, According to New Research
A significant academic study has issued a stark warning: any violation of the limits that climate scientists consider safe regarding global warming will likely lead to “irreversible consequences” for our planet.
Even a brief spike above the 1.5°C threshold—often referred to as an “overshoot”—could trigger a series of catastrophic outcomes, such as rising sea levels and other long-lasting effects that could persist for millennia.
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, the lead author of the study, emphasized the magnitude of these findings. “This debunks the idea that an overshoot would yield a climate similar to one where proactive measures were taken earlier to mitigate global warming,” he noted. The collaborative research involved the insights of 30 scientists and took three years to complete.
The urgency of these findings cannot be overstated. The ambitious target of restraining global temperature increases to a mere 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is becoming alarmingly elusive.
At present, global temperatures continue their relentless upward trajectory.
Scientists and policymakers increasingly regard some form of temperature overshoot as an unavoidable reality. Yet, the newly published research in the esteemed journal *Nature* cautions against a misplaced sense of security regarding this scenario—many associated risks remain largely underappreciated.
An overshoot not only threatens immediate impacts but could also unleash repercussions lasting hundreds or even thousands of years. The potential to cross critical “tipping points” poses the threat of irrevocable transformations within Earth’s climate system.
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Consider the ramifications: the thawing of permafrost and peatlands—carbon-rich environments that, if disturbed, would release vast quantities of greenhouse gases, further exacerbating climate change.
According to the authors, if we surpass the 1.5°C mark for a century, sea levels could rise by an additional 40 centimeters. This would have existential implications for low-lying island nations, already vulnerable to climate change.
“For a multitude of climate indicators, even a temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C threshold could lead to irreversible consequences,” asserted Mr. Schleussner from the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria. “Even if we manage to cool things down again, the resulting climate won’t mirror what we would have had if we never overshot in the first place.”
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Current climate pledges worldwide are projected to lead to warming approaching 3°C by the year 2100, according to the United Nations. To limit warming to the target of 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must reach net-zero levels by 2050. This means that the amount of carbon dioxide emitted needs to be balanced by what can be extracted from the atmosphere, primarily through technological means.
This endeavor, known as carbon removal, must be vastly expanded to bring down global temperatures in the event of an overshoot. It’s a daunting challenge and far from certain that it can be achieved effectively.
“We cannot assume that a temperature recovery post-overshoot is achievable within the timelines typically predicted,” the researchers cautioned in their publication.
Mr. Schleussner stressed the necessity of immediate governmental action: “Our findings highlight the urgency for governments to cut emissions without delay. It’s critical to keep any peak warming as minimal as possible.”
“To genuinely mitigate climate risks,” he added, “we must recognize that the journey to net-zero isn’t just an option—it’s a crucial race.”
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
