World logs fifth hottest February as atmospheric rivers drench western Europe, Copernicus reports
The world registered its fifth hottest February on record as extreme rainfall and widespread flooding inundated parts of western and southern Europe, according to the European Union’s Copernicus climate monitor. Global temperatures last month were 1.49C above pre-industrial levels, defined as 1850-1900, underscoring the persistent heat that is shaping weather extremes worldwide.
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Europe’s picture was split between temperature and rainfall. The continent’s average temperature was -0.07C — among the three coldest February readings in the past 14 years — even as storms delivered record precipitation to some of its most populated regions. Colder-than-average conditions gripped northwest Russia, the Baltic countries, Finland and neighboring Scandinavia.
Precipitation told a different story. Copernicus said much of western and southern Europe was wetter than average, while the rest of the continent was mostly drier. Central Portugal was hit by severe flooding, and south-east Ireland was among the worst affected areas during last month’s deluge, as successive storms left river basins and urban drainage systems overwhelmed.
Human-driven climate change intensified the torrential downpours that killed dozens and forced thousands from their homes across Spain, Portugal and Morocco between January and February, according to the World Weather Attribution network of climate scientists. That finding aligns with a growing body of research showing that a warmer atmosphere supercharges rainfall extremes and raises flood risk.
“The extreme events of February 2026 highlight the growing impacts of climate change and the pressing need for global action,” said Dr. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus. “Europe experienced stark temperature contrasts,” she said, as “exceptional atmospheric rivers — narrow bands of very moist air — brought record rainfall and widespread flooding to western and southern Europe.”
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Burgess said three linked factors drove the heightened rainfall. First, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, making downpours more intense. Second, the polar jet stream shifted farther south than usual, yielding milder but wetter conditions across large parts of Europe. Third, high sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic combined with the extra atmospheric moisture to power exceptional atmospheric rivers — intense flows of water vapor that wrung out as fierce storms.
“We’ve always had bad storms, and it’s not unusual to have a bad storm at this time of year, but we had seven or eight storms in a row,” Burgess said. The sequence left soils “super saturated,” she added, limiting the land’s ability to absorb additional rainfall and turning subsequent storms into high-impact flood events.
Beyond Europe, warmth dominated in several regions. The United States, northeast Canada, the Middle East, Central Asia and east Antarctica all recorded warmer-than-average conditions for the month. Oceans continued to run hot: global sea surface temperatures were the second highest on record for February, a key driver of both atmospheric moisture and the energy feeding storm systems.
Polar ice indicators reflected the unusual month. In the Arctic, average sea ice extent was the third lowest for February, about 5% below average. By contrast, Antarctic sea ice extent was close to average — a sharp departure from the much-below-average levels observed over the past four years, Copernicus said. While a single month does not reverse longer-term declines, the Antarctic reading underscores the variability that can mask underlying trends when viewed in isolation.
The February snapshot illustrates how climate change can create compound hazards: temperature anomalies that do not always align with precipitation extremes, seas that store record heat, and storm tracks that deliver repeated blows to the same regions. For communities across western and southern Europe, the immediate impacts were felt in flooded homes, disrupted transport and strained emergency services.
Scientists and forecasters say the mechanics are clear. Warmer oceans and air increase the odds of heavy precipitation, atmospheric rivers transport that moisture efficiently over long distances, and a shifted jet stream can steer storms across the same corridors for days or weeks. When saturated soils and full reservoirs meet back-to-back systems, flood risk climbs sharply.
The implications point to both mitigation and preparedness. Slowing the rise in global temperatures remains the core lever for reducing long-term risk. In parallel, local and national authorities are reassessing flood defenses, drainage capacity, land-use planning and early-warning systems to cope with more frequent high-intensity rainfall. Burgess’s assessment — that the intensity, frequency and moisture content of recent storms are all being influenced by climate change — suggests that last month’s pattern may become a more familiar test of resilience.
Copernicus’s monthly report underscores the complexity of the new climate normal: a Europe that can run colder than recent years while still suffering historic rain and floods; oceans that rank near record warmth; and polar ice that can buck recent trends in one basin while continuing to shrink in another. In policy terms, the lesson is less about a single statistic and more about how those statistics interact to shape risk on the ground.
“Storm frequency and record rainfall led to saturated ground,” Burgess said, capturing the chain reaction that turned February’s weather into a cascading emergency for many communities. With global temperatures sitting 1.49C above pre-industrial levels last month, the physical backdrop for such extremes remains in place, and the urgency to adapt — and to cut emissions — grows by the week.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
