Jair Bolsonaro has signaled his intention to back his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, as a presidential candidate in Brazil’s 2026 election, the Liberal Party said, setting off political and market jitters on Thursday.
Valdemar Costa Neto, head of Jair Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party, told Reuters he had been told by the senator that the former president had “ratified his candidacy.” CNN Brasil, citing unnamed sources, reported that Jair Bolsonaro offered his support to his son during a visit to federal police offices in Brasilia, where the ex-president is serving a sentence.
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News of Flavio Bolsonaro’s prospective bid immediately affected markets: the real weakened about 2% against the U.S. dollar and Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa stock index fell roughly 3% in afternoon trade, according to market data.
“The market sees Flavio as a weaker candidate than Tarcisio in a race against Lula,” said Laís Costa, an analyst at Empiricus Research, referring to a rival from the broader conservative field. Investors have repeatedly reacted to the shifting contours of Brazil’s presidential race, which could reshape fiscal and regulatory expectations ahead of 2026.
The move comes against a backdrop of legal restrictions and criminal convictions that complicate the Bolsonaro family’s electoral prospects. Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running for office in June 2023 after Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) condemned his conduct during the 2022 election. In September he was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for his role in plotting a coup following his defeat to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and a long-standing figure in his father’s political orbit, has previously been a focal point of investigations into campaign financing and corruption. He has not yet filed a formal presidential candidacy, and the Liberal Party did not provide a timetable for any official launch.
Political analysts say the announcement—if confirmed as a formal candidacy—would test the durability of Jair Bolsonaro’s political brand while exposing fissures within Brazil’s right-of-center camp. Voters who supported Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 may be divided between loyalty to the family name and concerns about electability and legal baggage.
President Lula, whose Workers’ Party government faces economic and political challenges, remains the central figure in the prospective 2026 contest. How the opposition consolidates behind a single candidate, and whether legal impediments constrain campaigning or candidacy filings, will shape the battle to come.
For now, markets and parties alike are parsing the signal sent by the elder Bolsonaro’s apparent endorsement: a continuation of the family’s central role in Brazil’s polarized politics, but one that may come at the cost of investor confidence and cohesion among conservative rivals.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
