Gulf flight disruption is rippling across global travel, forcing families to reroute long-haul journeys and pushing up fares as airlines cut capacity and fuel costs surge. The uncertainty is especially acute for Irish passengers trying to reach Australia and New Zealand, routes that have long relied on the Middle East’s mega-hubs and are now being squeezed by war-related constraints and shifting safety perceptions.
Dublin native Brian Sullivan was due to fly home with his wife and three children from Melbourne via Abu Dhabi on March 13. “We would’ve been on the plane right now,” he said. Etihad offered a cancellation and a refund, which the family accepted after rebooking via a different route was ruled out. The trip that originally cost just over €6,000 would have ended up costing up to €16,000, he said.
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Only limited flights are operating through the Gulf, a corridor that ordinarily carries a vast share of Europe–Australasia traffic. Together, Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways routinely transport more than half of all passengers between Europe and Australia, New Zealand and the nearby Pacific Islands. That pipeline has narrowed sharply: Etihad is now operating at 15% of pre-war capacity, according to Flightradar24. Qatar is running a limited schedule with no Dublin–Doha connections currently in place. Dubai, the world’s busiest air hub, has seen comparatively more activity, and Emirates is operating at around 60% of pre-war levels.
Seats remain available, and in some cases headline fares look tempting. For this weekend, one-way flights from Dublin to Sydney via Dubai were advertised on Emirates’ website for about €600. But many travelers are unwilling to transit the region amid ongoing hostilities. “There’s no way we’re going to get on the plane when there’s rockets flying around in the air in that area. Not a chance,” Sullivan said. “Statistically we’ll probably get through, and nothing might happen, but what’s the point in taking the chance?”
Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs has not changed its travel advice for the Gulf, continuing to urge against all non-essential travel to Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. For aviation, the region’s status as a vital East–West bridge is in question if the war persists, with knock-on effects for pricing, scheduling and passenger confidence far beyond the Middle East.
Travelers are already looking for alternatives. “Before the UAE opened up as a hub, Australia mainly funnelled through Singapore and Bangkok,” said Paul Hackett, CEO of Click&Go and vice president of the Irish Travel Agents Association. “People went Dublin–London, Dublin–Frankfurt or Dublin–Paris to Singapore and Bangkok and then on. Australia used to be a two-stop journey.” There isn’t a one-stop substitute for Dubai, he said, though North American routes might work for some passengers from New Zealand or Australia’s east coast.
For Sullivan’s family, future trips will avoid the Gulf for now. He hopes to see his parents and brother and bring the family over for Halloween, likely via a stopover in Singapore and Frankfurt. That kind of shift could become a long-term choice for families and risk-averse travelers if security concerns linger, even if airlines keep some capacity flowing through the Gulf.
Price pressure is building. With oil rising and Gulf capacity reduced, airlines globally have begun passing costs through to consumers. Dutch carrier KLM said Thursday it will raise long-haul fares due to jet fuel costs, without specifying by how much. Earlier, Qantas, Air New Zealand, SAS and Thai Airways all announced hikes.
“Some airlines are more exposed than others but ultimately they’re going to try and pass the cost through to the consumer,” said Stephen Furlong, a transport and logistics analyst at Davy Group. Jet fuel prices have climbed much faster than crude oil, doubling to about $160 a barrel since early March.
Hedging—locking in fuel prices via forward contracts—offers some protection, though not evenly. In Europe, where hedging is common, Air France has 62% of its fuel hedged and Lufthansa has 77%, limiting near-term volatility. The owner of Aer Lingus, IAG, is hedged by 62% for 2026 and said it is not planning to raise prices “immediately.” Ryanair has “the best hedging position,” Furlong said, with 80% of its fuel hedged until March 2027.
Furlong does not expect “dramatic price increases” on European routes in the short term but warned that long-haul and transatlantic fares are likely to rise, particularly as unhedged U.S. airlines could “aggressively” increase prices. Even well-hedged carriers are nudging fares up as demand remains robust and supply tightens.
Capacity matters as much as fuel. “It’s just simple economics,” said travel expert Anita Mendiratta, noting that Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad typically offer fares 20% to 30% lower than competitors. “Removing a significant portion of that capacity from the system quickly reduces consumer choice and can push prices higher.”
The shock is already hitting tourism. The Middle East’s visitor economy—worth some $367 billion annually—is reeling, with analysts at consultancy Tourism Economics estimating 23 million to 38 million fewer visitors this year, costing the Gulf up to $56 billion. For Irish travelers, the Gulf itself is not a dominant holiday draw despite Dubai’s rising popularity, Hackett said. Click&Go has canceled its Dubai cruises for the rest of the month, rebooking customers elsewhere.
Across Europe, the impact is harder to call. “We’re doing lots of reassuring,” Hackett said, citing calls from clients anxious about trips to Oslo or even cruises booked for 2028. He expects some rerouting away from the eastern Mediterranean, which could boost demand—and prices—for Spain, Portugal and the Canary Islands as travelers seek perceived safety and straightforward itineraries.
For now, the aviation map is being redrawn in real time. The Gulf’s role as the indispensable hinge between Europe and Australasia has not vanished, but it has weakened. That leaves families like the Sullivans weighing cold math and personal risk tolerance: two stops instead of one, unfamiliar routings, and the possibility of higher fares for months to come. With hedging cushions uneven and jet fuel elevated, even a partial recovery in Gulf capacity may not translate to immediate relief on ticket prices.
The immediate advice is unglamorous but clear: expect limited choice, longer journeys and volatile fares. Watch airline waivers and refund policies closely, and be prepared to pivot across routings through Singapore or Bangkok—or, for some, through North America. Above all, factor in that the Gulf’s aviation heartbeat, once predictably steady, is now out of rhythm—and the reverberations are being felt from Dublin to Sydney.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
