It is perhaps fitting that a tournament that started with Nessun Dorma, Andrea Bocelli and Italy in Rome ends with the Azzurri taking on England at Wembley.
The excellent side of the group stage, Italy, has worked hard in a tough knockout run but scraped past Spain on penalties.
On the other hand, the three lions looked quite ordinary in the first round but reached the semifinals without letting in before they gathered past Denmark.
But who has the upper hand on the way to Sunday’s final?
Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Performs AI team using Opta data, identified Italy and England as the most likely winners in the semi-finals. Now it is trying to predict the decision maker.
This model estimates the probability of outcome (profit or loss), using odds market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performance.
The final has since been simulated 40,000 times, with each analysis analyzed, which gives a percentage to assign to the two finalists, which gives their probability to lift the trophy this weekend …
England celebrates Kane’s winner against Denmark / Laurence Griffiths / Getty Images
There will be no shortage of expectations for the hosts after England reached a major final for just the second time and ended their 55-year wait since the 1966 World Cup – the biggest gap between two Euro or World Cup finals.
Of course, this is the Three Lions’ first Eurofinal after 37 matches in the competition. No other team has gone so far without reaching the final.
That inexperience could be counted against them in the Italy game, with the model favoring the Azzurri – just as it went into the final four.
But England answered some questions against Denmark, especially in the face of setbacks as they trailed for the first time after Jordan Pickford’s record run of 725 minutes without conceding ended with Mikkel Damsgaard’s free kick.
Pickford had just passed Gordon Bank’s previous benchmark for three lions in 720 minutes between May and July 1966.
An own goal from Simon Kjaer and Harry Kane’s extra rise – after Kasper Schmeichel saved his penalty – turned the match upside down, however, with England coming from behind to win a knockout game at the European Championships for the first time.
A 3-2 victory over Cameroon at the 1990 World Cup was in fact the latest example of England crashing a deficit in a major tournament.
Pickford would undoubtedly prefer to avoid this drama and keep a record-recommended sixth clean stretch in a single campaign, although he is likely to cut his work …
Jorginho made winning penalty against Spain / Claudio Villa / Getty Images
England will withstand a record attack in Italy, where the Azzurri never score more than 12 goals in a major tournament – which it does during Euro 2020 but also the World Cups of 1934, 1982 and 2006. They ended all three previous campaigns as champions.
Roberto Mancini’s side is just the second team – after France 2000 – to have as many as five different players scoring two or more goals at a European Championship.
Federico Chiesa, Matteo Pessina, Lorenzo Insigne, Ciro Immobile and Manuel Locatelli have all netted several times.
Although Italy cannot break down the three lions and may be forced to go to court, no European nation has questioned more shoot-outs at the euro or the World Cup – their ten tied with semi-top rivals Spain.
And the Azzurri are the leading leaders when it comes to playing extra time in the Euro, having done so on nine occasions.
The last experience that England lacks is really obvious in Italy’s history, with this being their 10th major tournament (six at the World Cup, four in euros). Germany (14) is the only European nation to play more such finals.
Leonardo Bonucci appeared in Italy’s latest final against Spain at the European Championships in 2012 and another trip to Wembley would take him past Gianluigi Buffon for the Azzurri Euros game.
He is set for his 18th appearance and is determined to make sure that defensive colleague Giorgio Chiellini holds the trophy high on Sunday night.
