England have qualified for the Euro 2020 final with one game left, but it is their final position in Group D that will determine who Gareth Southgate’s team will continue to play in the 16s and possibly beyond.
England can still finish first, second or third in Group D, but any of these placements will result in progression to the next round because other results in the competition already mean that they are guaranteed to be at least among the top four third-placed teams. .
The probability of England finishing third is actually quite small. It will only happen if they lose their last match against the Czech Republic and if Scotland beat Croatia and surpass them on goal difference. England cannot be surpassed by Croatia in any scenario due to superior goal-to-head goal difference due to the 1-0 victory at Wembley in the first game.
Much more likely is a first or second place. England are guaranteed second place if they draw against the Czech Republic. Alternatively, they can still come second if they lose, but Scotland also fail to beat Croatia. However, they will top the group regardless of whether they win against the Czech Republic.
With England in their 16s in one way or another no matter what, they are already discussing which knockout route they will get and which one may be most favorable.
England win the group if they beat the Czech Republic / Robin Jones / Getty Images
The top place in group D means a final 16 competition against the second place in group F, which has been called the “death group”. If Hungary do not cause outrage in their last match, it will mean facing either France, Portugal or Germany – who can all still finish others.
Any of these three would be an extremely challenging opponent as they all have real prospects of winning the entire tournament. It has even led to a school of thought that England would even be better off in second place in the group and avoiding this fate.
But if England wins Group D and wins the tough 16 match with France, Portugal or Germany, the knockout route suddenly becomes more favorable afterwards.
It would probably be a quarter-final against a beatable Sweden or a blunt Spain, and perhaps a semi-final against either the Netherlands or a lively but limited Denmark.
England end up in second place in Group D if they draw against the Czech Republic / JUSTIN TALLIS / Getty Images
Second place in Group D is seen as more immediately favorable by many fans as it deviates England from a Group F opponent in the first knockout game.
In this scenario, the last 16 would instead be against second place in Group E, which could be Sweden, Slovakia, Poland or Spain depending on the final result. No one has done anything very special so far and everyone has limitations or weaknesses.
But after 16 years, this side of the rash is undoubtedly tougher. England would not avoid the Group F countries as long as the quarter-finals were against that group winner.
Should they get through it, a semi-final would probably be against Italy or Belgium, who have both taken maximum points in the group stage and are the most shapely teams in the tournament.
Toss-up is if fans think having a more favorable round of 16 opponents is preferable before a more likely elimination in the quarter-finals, compared to the other side of the knockout bracket that presents a tougher 16-year-old who can see England more likely to be knocked out earlier, but given a potentially easier path to the final after that if they survive.
England can still finish third in Group D / Matt Dunham – Pool / Getty Images
In the unlikely but still possible scenario that England ends up in third place in Group D, there are a couple of knockout routes depending on the final ranking for all third place teams.
One is the last 16 draw against the Netherlands. If England won, it would be a quarter-final against the winner of Wales and Denmark and a likely semi-final against France, Portugal or Germany.
The second knockout route in third place is in the same half of the bracket, but would probably start against either Sweden or Spain in the 16s and result in a quarter final against France, Portugal or Germany.
If England are to reach the European Championship 2020 final at Wembley on July 11, which is expected to have up to 60,000 fans present, they will almost certainly have to beat one of France, Portugal or Germany to get there.
Different scenarios produce like ties in different stages of the tournament, but it will likely happen no matter what and it will undoubtedly provide no odds when they want to lift the trophy.
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