The first knockout round at Euro 2020 came as a shock, with favorites France among the eliminated.
The world champions, holders Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands no longer play a role in the tournament and blow a draw.
So who is best suited to win now? Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Performs AI team using Opta data, has tried to answer that question.
This model estimates the probability of outcome (win or loss) for each match using odds market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performance. It takes into account the opponents’ strength and how difficult each team’s path to the final now looks.
The rest of the tournament has since been simulated 40,000 times, analyzing each outcome, giving a percentage to assign to each of the remaining eight teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.
As the Wembley final approaches, the challengers – and their title jumps – are ranked below …
The Czech Republic shocked the Netherlands / Alex Pantling / Getty Images
The Czech Republic had not won a knockout match in a major tournament since Euro 2004 but stunned the Dutchman’s ten men 2-0 thanks to goals from Tomas Holes and Patrik Schick – the fourth in four matches.
That 2004 won was a quarter-final success against Denmark and they will have the chance to repeat that triumph in the next stage. Jaroslav Silhavy’s men are underdogs, however, but they get a 46.9 percent chance to beat the Danes.
Even on the obviously lighter side of the draw, the Czech Republic is least likely to go all the way.
Switzerland beat the favorites / Marcio Machado / Getty Images
Kylian Mbappe’s protruding miss experienced a sensational Switzerland victory against France, which meant an unexpected first major tournament quarter-final since the 1954 World Cup.
It will hardly be easier because next time Switzerland will have to face Spain, which they have only beaten once in 22 meetings and have only a 26.9 percent expectation of defeating again. However, the only victory came in the sides’ latest tournament match at the 2010 World Cup.
Ukraine beat Sweden after extra time / Andy Buchanan – Pool / Getty Images
Ukraine left it late against Sweden – in fact, Artem Dovbyk’s 12-minute nod was the latest winner in Euro history – but they can now look forward to a first European Championship quarter-final against England.
Beaten and injured after their Hampden Park victory, another triumph in Rome this weekend feels like a tough question – only Switzerland are considered more unlikely to reach the last four – but Andriy Shevchenko’s men have already broken new ground.
Dolberg was the hero for Denmark / BSR Agency / Getty Images
Denmark may only be fifth favorites, but they are probably the form team and have become the first page in Euro history to score four or more goals in a row. Admittedly, Spain then netted five in back-to-back games.
Kasper Hjulmand’s men have speed and are just behind to continue their victory round against the Czech Republic before they can give tough semifinal resistance.
Chiesa is very good / FRANK AUGSTEIN / Getty Images
Italy are not even favorites in their quarter-finals – they get a 45.1 percent chance of winning – but few will come back against them to go all the way after impressing so far in the final.
The first time the Azzurri won four matches on the bounce at the Euro, as they have done, they fought since finalists in 2000. They hope to get better this year.
Sterling Can’t Stop Scoring / Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA / Getty Images
England fans could be forgiven for being cheated after beating Germany in a competitive match at Wembley for the first time since the 1966 World Cup final.
That tournament – Three Lions’ only major triumph – also provided the only previous example of England keeping clean sheets in each of their first four matches in a final, which Jordan Pickford has this year.
Gareth Southgate’s side is ranked as the most likely finalists to a massive 48.5 percent.
Lukaku is the head of Belgium / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images
Belgium were other favorites after the group stage and will remain so, even with France out. The Red Devils overthrew reigning champions Portugal but saw Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard injured in the process.
Roberto Martinez’s outfit has won his last five tournament matches but has never reached the top of six in a row. Italy are next in a giant draw last eight, albeit one where they are expected to advance from.
Spain scores for fun / Pixsell / MB Media / Getty Images
After finishing second in their group, Spain got a scary road through the tournament, against World Cup finalists Croatia and then probably the winners in Russia 2018.
But Les Bleus’ departure raises hopes for Spain, the best team in their quarter of the draw.
La Roja have scored 11 times in Euro 2020 – only in 2008 and 2012 have they scored more goals in a single European Championship. They took the title on both occasions.
