In the fourth quarter of 2024, Nigeria saw a surge in its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), growing by 3.84% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest report.
Perhaps this statistic alone could be a cause for cautious optimism among economists. However, when we dive deeper into these numbers, intriguing patterns and challenging questions begin to emerge. What factors contribute to this growth, and what might these imply for Nigeria’s economic future?
The report reveals an interesting detail: the growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 marked a noticeable increase over the same period in 2023, when the growth was recorded at 3.46%. Moreover, it exceeded the third quarter’s performance of 3.46% as well. These figures encapsulate a narrative of a country gradually regaining its economic footing. But, the vitality of this growth prompts further exploration. Have the fundamental economic conditions significantly changed?
While the oil sector remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, the report highlights fluctuations in oil production. In Q4 2024, daily oil production stood at 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), slightly lower than 1.56 mbpd in Q3 2023 but higher than the 1.47 mbpd documented in the same quarter of the previous year. This variance underscores the ever-shifting landscape of oil-dependent economies. It prompts us to ponder, “Could diversification into non-oil sectors better shield Nigeria from global market fluctuations?”
Turning to the non-oil sectors, remarkable figures emerge, particularly in the services sector. This sector experienced an impressive 5.37% growth, contributing a substantial 57.38% to the total GDP during the review period. This shows the potential ripple effect of growth in services, often described as the backbone of modern economies.
Furthermore, the agriculture sector, after a 2.10% rise in Q4 2023, expanded by 1.76%. The industrial sector showed modest growth of 2.00%, reflecting a decline from the previous year’s fourth-quarter growth of 3.86%. These variations lead us to question and reflect: are these sectors resilient enough to maintain growth, and what innovations could further enhance their productivity?
“In terms of the share of GDP, the services sector has made more significant contributions in Q4 2024 compared to the same quarter in 2023.”
Reflecting on the broader implications of these numbers offers an opportunity to envision Nigeria’s economic journey. The annual GDP growth for 2024 landed at 3.40%, gaining ground from 2023’s 2.74%. This is worthy of acknowledgment, suggesting a trending upward trajectory.
However, while celebrating the growth, it’s imperative to note that not every sector positively contributed. Some sectors still grappling with slow growth rates remind us of the economic complexities at play.
Top 10 Sectors in Nigeria with the Lowest GDP Growth Rate at Current Prices (Nominal GDP Growth) %
| Rank | Sector | (Nominal GDP growth) % |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Pulp, Paper and Paper Products | 0.13% |
| 2. | Textile, Apparel and Footwear | 0.95% |
| 3. | Fishing | 1.26% |
| 4. | Livestock | 1.42% |
| 5. | Non-Metallic Products | 2.27% |
| 6. | Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply | 2.29% |
| 7. | Electrical and Electronics | 2.55% |
| 8. | Food, Beverage and Tobacco | 2.63% |
| 9. | Plastic and Rubber Products | 2.78% |
| 10. | Wood and Wood Products | 2.85% |
As we internally navigate these data, it becomes apparent that Nigeria’s economic landscape is evolving. The question remains: How will these sectors adapt, and what future policies will shape an even brighter outlook for the nation? The journey to sustained economic prosperity is nuanced and complex, but with thoughtful strategy and broadening opportunities, there is potential for a transformative economic future.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring
