The Shifting Sands of Migration: Navigating Dreams and Dilemmas in Niger

At Agadez’s vibrant bus terminal, a dozen men, faces veiled by turbans and shades, climbed aboard a rugged pickup truck destined for Libya. They traversed the arid desert, holding fast to their aspirations. Amidst their journey, several proclaimed, “Italy, Italy!” as they gripped wooden poles, steeling themselves against daunting challenges.

“If I make enough in Libya, I’ll settle down there. If not, Europe is next on my list,” declared Abdoulaye Diallo, a 40-year-old from Guinea, during a conversation at a local migrant shelter in late April.

In a bold move, Niger’s military leaders recently abolished a European Union-supported law that penalized those who assisted migrants. Following this decision, pickup trucks like the one headed to Libya have joined the ranks of weekly convoys comprising Nigerien security forces moving northward, forsaking previous circuitous routes aimed at evasion.

Since the law’s repeal, migrant traffic has surged. In March, over 128,790 migrants were recorded departing Niger, marking a staggering 68% increase compared to the same month in the previous year, according to data compiled by Reuters and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a subsidiary of the U.N.

Simultaneously, the fees charged by human smugglers for desert passages from Niger to Libya have plummeted to approximately $170 per individual, down from a prohibitive $500 that prevailed under the law, as noted by the IOM in a recent report.

This legislative about-face has raised eyebrows in Europe. In light of the impending European Parliament elections, some far-right factions have voiced growing concerns about a potential surge of unauthorized migrants.

Yet, a collective of nine migration experts, along with representatives from organizations focused on migration issues, offered a tempered perspective, indicating that current data on migrants arriving in Europe via the Mediterranean fails to demonstrate a surge—though they acknowledge that future increases may occur.

“Whenever I hear politicians declaring an immigration crisis or label it an invasion, I just don’t agree. That’s simply not the truth,” asserted Flavio di Giacomo, the IOM spokesperson for the Mediterranean. He emphasized that the agency does not project a dramatic uptick in migrant flows from North Africa in the near months.

“This is more of a humanitarian predicament than a numerical emergency.”

Interestingly, arrivals on the central Mediterranean route marked a 62% decline from January to April, as reported by the EU’s border agency, Frontex, in May. This decline is partially attributed to adverse weather making sea crossings perilous, di Giacomo remarked.

The IOM also highlights longstanding trends showing that approximately 80% of African migrants tend to remain within the continent, reflecting a deeply-rooted tradition of economic mobility.

However, two officials from the region, who preferred anonymity due to restrictions on speaking publicly, revealed that both Libya and Tunisia have ramped up efforts to either return or detain migrants seeking Mediterranean passage after receiving European funds aimed at curtailing migration. The EU disclosed plans last year to invest 800 million euros across North Africa until 2024 as part of this strategy.

A spokesperson for the European Commission did not respond to inquiries from Reuters.

This week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni credited the decline in crossings predominantly to the assistance provided by Libya and Tunisia.

Those endeavoring to reach Europe via Libya must first maneuver through a series of security checkpoints and exploitative militias. An anonymous aid worker in Libya described the country as “a swamp,” filled with countless migrants caught in limbo, struggling to earn enough or falling victim to criminal enterprises.

“Reaching the Mediterranean often takes them months or even years,” recounted Azizou Chehou, an activist in Niger who operates a rescue organization for migrants in the desert.

Requests for comments from officials in Tunisia and Libya went unanswered. Tunisia has stated it respects human rights but does not welcome those entering illegally. Meanwhile, Libyan authorities assert they are collaborating with neighboring countries and Italy to address migration challenges.

Simplified Path Through Niger

Over the last decade, the 27-member EU has been pushing to curtail irregular migration from the Middle East and Africa by tightening borders and restricting asylum regulations.

The EU has attempted to halt migrant flows by establishing buffers in transit countries. This involved working with Niger’s government to cease migrant movement in exchange for financial support and initiatives aimed at enhancing legal economic opportunities domestically.

The impact of the 2015 migration law was immediate and severe. Following its introduction, routes beyond Agadez saw intensified patrols, causing outgoing migrant flows to plummet by 79% between 2016 and 2017, according to U.N. statistics.

In 2018, the number of migrants detected on the central Mediterranean route fell to just 24,800—an astonishing 86% decline from the record high of 181,459 in 2016, which predominantly originated from Libya, Frontex reported.

Some migrants continued their journeys through Niger, evading detection by delving deeper into the desert. Others sought alternative routes, cramming into boats bound for the Canary Islands or legally flying across the Sahara to Tunisia.

After the Niger junta’s coup in July 2023, the new leadership promptly dismantled the agreement with the EU.

The law faced considerable backlash in northern Niger, where locals who hosted, fed, and transported migrants saw their income vanish almost overnight. Analysts indicate that the junta’s decision to abolish the law also served to bolster its anti-Western posture, according to three experts consulted by Reuters.

Binta Maiga Moha, migration director at Niger’s interior ministry, stated that the government rescinded the law, as it severely hampered the Agadez region’s economy and asserted that only a fraction of the EU’s financial aid reached Niger, with the bulk going to U.N. agencies and other aid organizations.

She also remarked that the law inadvertently led to increased fatalities as migrants took more perilous routes.

Migration scholar Luca Raineri of Italy’s Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies remarked on the challenges of quantifying the true number of migrants traversing Niger due to previous underreporting.

Local NGOs have observed a significant uptick in northward migration.

During the law’s enforcement, around ten to twenty vehicles—each carrying approximately twenty-five individuals—departed weekly for Libya and Algeria, but these numbers have surged to nearly one hundred vehicles now, according to Chehou.

More than 60% of migrants observed transiting Niger this year have been Nigerien nationals, noted the IOM. Most of these individuals are seeking jobs without intentions of continuing their journey.

Partly due to the law’s reversal, the number of migrants in Libya swelled to 719,064 as of February 2024, marking the highest figure since the IOM began monitoring displacement in that country.

Upon entering Libya, migrants encounter a nation rife with “widespread” exploitation, where their suffering serves as fodder for an infamous underground economy, compounded by “overwhelming” evidence of systemic torture and sexual slavery, as cited in a U.N. report last year that discussed potential crimes against humanity.