Sudan’s Old Guard Returns: The NCP’s Bid for a Comeback Amid Conflict
In the remote edges of northern Sudan, the embers of an old regime are being stoked back to life. The National Congress Party (NCP), once dethroned during the 2019 uprising after a 30-year rule under Omar al-Bashir, is re-emerging from the shadows. Their chosen path: through the military warfare that has gripped Sudan in a brutal civil conflict.
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The Sudanese civil war, entering its third relentless year, has left a tragic imprint—claiming tens of thousands of lives and displacing over 10 million people, as highlighted by the United Nations. Sudan’s humanitarian implosion has worsened, marking it as one of the world’s direst crises.
A Return Through the Barrel of a Gun
The NCP’s resurgence is cloaked in military garb, backing the national army against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Ahmed Haroun, an NCP chair hiding in northern Sudan, encapsulates the party’s audacious ambition. Despite being a fugitive wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), Haroun sees a future where the NCP reclaims power via elections following a military-led transitional phase. “The Western model isn’t practical here,” Haroun asserts, echoing a sentiment of regional resistance to external governance models.
As the conflict rages, the RSF remains entrenched in Darfur and the south. However, recent developments highlight the army’s territorial gains, which are telling of NCP’s strategic influence. Insiders suggest these victories are fueled by approximately 3,000 NCP-aligned fighters, a fact both camps are keen to downplay publicly.
Military Alliances and Political Ambitions
The NCP’s influence permeates Sudan’s military and bureaucratic landscape. Loyalists occupy significant positions in the cabinet of the newly appointed technocratic Prime Minister, Kamil Idris. These shifts indicate a methodical reclamation of power, albeit under a different guise.
One internal document suggests NCP’s sprawling involvement in mobilizing tens of thousands of fighters. Haroun himself, having escaped captivity amid the chaos of war, stops short of acknowledging direct control over troops but candidly admits support for the army as a survival mechanism.
Interestingly, the elite al-Baraa Ibn Malik brigade, commanded by Owais Ghanim, has reportedly been instrumental in breaking RSF sieges around Khartoum. “Our aim is stabilization, not reinstating old rule,” Ghanim argues, though his unit’s artillery and drone strategies say otherwise.
The Broader Implications
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army chief, publicly distances himself from any NCP resurgence yet relies on the party’s extensive networks for financial backing and regional alliances. But this association bears geopolitical risks, especially as the army terminates diplomatic ties with the UAE over alleged RSF support.
Countries like the United States are cautiously observing this power realignment. The NCP’s ascension could signify a setback for Sudan’s fragile democratic dreams and potentially create further fissures with nations wary of a return to autocratic governance.
Reflecting on this complex situation, one might question whether Sudan’s political future can bypass the entrenched cycles of power and violence. Could new models of governance, built from within and reflective of Sudan’s unique context, emerge from the chaos?
Global Context and Reflections
Sudan’s conundrum is not isolated. Across the globe, nations wrestling with post-conflict reconstruction face similar challenges. Examples abound—from Afghanistan’s grappling with Taliban rule to Myanmar’s ongoing struggles post-coup. The recurring theme points to the delicate balance between military influence and civilian governance.
In Sudan, as Haroun points out, there’s an impetus to “develop our own model.” This raises a critical inquiry: What does a uniquely Sudanese governance framework look like? And more crucially, can such a model sustain peace and prosperity without reverting to military domination?
The resurgence of the NCP amid Sudan’s unrelenting conflict is a harsh reminder of the country’s turbulent path. Whether this juncture leads to another cycle of authoritarian rule or a new democratic dawn remains a poignant question.
As the world watches, the stakes for Sudanese civilians couldn’t be higher. The international community’s role in shaping this outcome requires sensitive diplomacy, inclusive dialogue, and unwavering support for humanitarian needs.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
