what are the forces involved?

It has been more than 24 hours since the Ethiopian government launched an offensive against the province of Tigray, 700 kilometers north of the capital Addis Ababa. Tensions had been rising for several weeks between Tigray and the federal government following the province’s attempted secession in early September. The government qualifies the provincial authorities as criminals and intends to regain control of the territory. We have few elements due to the complete cut-off of communication networks, but violent struggle would have taken place ….

as reported from Addis Ababa Noé Rochet-Bodin

The Tigray region has always been militarily strategic for Ethiopia. It borders Eritrea, which Addis Ababa has lived in a state of permanent conflict for decades. This is where the Northern Command is located, one of the four in the country, with soldiers stationed between the capital Mekele and the city of Dansha.

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This command spearheaded the war against Eritrea between 1998 and 2000. And according to experts, it still includes half of the Ethiopian army in soldiers and equipment.

The question arises: Will these federal troops, to which they must respond to Addis Ababa’s orders, remain loyal to central power during this conflict? Recently, the Prime Minister had wanted to change these troops, which he had formally refused. two weeks ago, the rebel region. The TPLF believes that its senior officers are mostly favorable to it. In addition, the Tigraian authorities confirmed yesterday that the command had dropped out. What Addis Ababa immediately denied …

The region also claims to have a well-armed paramilitary militia led by former generals and composed of war veterans. Given the Tigrayan force, it may not be coincidental that the Prime Minister has released three generals from their retirement to support him in these fighting.

Finally, Eritrea is a parameter not to be forgotten. Asmara has an old conflict with Tigray. If the clashes spread to the other side of the border, Eritreans may be tempted to step in and settle with the Tigrayans.

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