In Ethiopia, the federal government has called on the regions to help, in the face of the sharp increase in the Tigray forces fighting it. Oromo, Amhara and Afar civilians have been urged in recent days to defend Ethiopia with their arms in their hands. This ethnic mobilization raises fears of an even more violent turnaround in the war and, according to observers, also reveals that federal forces can no longer fight on their own.
The Ethiopian army is now “out of action”. At least that is the opinion of Matt Bryden, head of Sahan Research and former UN investigator, who adds that the current situation of the federal government is “quite desperate”. For him, the Tigrayan uprising took advantage not only of the poor command of the federal forces “cleansed by its Tigrayan officers before the start of the war”, but also of the equipment that fell into its hands under its pressure on Mekele.
The same goes for William Davison, from the International Crisis Group. For him, the general mobilization of Oromos, Amharas and Afars is explained by “Ethiopia’s” military necessity “and” urgent unity “in the face of its losses. it is to be feared that this will only result in more deaths and increased ethnic polarization, “he concludes.
► Also read: Tigray: Amhara population mobilizes against rebel offensive
Militarily, the goal of the government now is to protect the strategic Djibouti-Addis highway, the two analysts say. Its capture by the Tigrayans “would change everything,” according to Matt Bryden. But for William Davison, it is difficult to see how “less educated and less armed” militias can turn the situation around in favor of Abiy Ahmed, after migrant forces resisted Ethiopia’s and Eritrean’s combined efforts to undo them.
► To read also: Ethiopia: Amhara region mobilizes its citizens against the Tigrayan rebels
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