Following the whirlwind events of the U.S. elections in November 2020, President Biden’s administration paused, opting to re-evaluate portions of an existing trade pact before rolling out a new series of discussions. Fast forward to August 2022, Kenya witnessed a leadership shift as former Deputy President William Ruto rose to the presidency, taking the reins in the ongoing negotiation process.
The buzz around these trade talks, formally known as the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), brims with optimism in Kenya, undeterred by the transition in the White House post the recent U.S. elections.
Contrary to the past momentum, the pace of negotiation seemed to stutter into a sluggish gait as the eighth round coincided with the U.S. elections, where ex-President Donald Trump pulled ahead, outpacing then Vice President Kamala Harris to seize his moment in January the following year.
Historical transitions in both the U.S. and Kenya have previously put the brakes on this trade initiative, originally launched under Trump and Uhuru Kenyatta back in July 2020. When Biden took charge after the November 2020 elections, his administration paused to take stock almost immediately, showing typical Beltway deliberation before reigniting talks.
In Kenya’s August 2022 ballot dance, Ruto clinched power, his administration swooping in to steer the negotiations with renewed vigor. The Ruto-Biden era marked an attempt to clinch a deal under the STIP umbrella, with change in Washington always holding the dice on policy and partnership.
Yet, a reappearance of Trump in the Oval could beckon another chance at treaty revisions, suggest trade boffins. Still, Kenyan Trade Principal Secretary Alfred K’Ombudo, who’s been intricately entwined within the negotiation maze, assures that the office shuffle won’t dampen the vibe.
As he notes, “The trade, investment, and development cooperation between Kenya and the United States remains robustly anchored on shared principles that outlive any administrative shift.”
Further underlining bipartisan goodwill, K’Ombudo emphasized a wide-ranging spectrum of support among AGOA senior officials, ministers, the African continent, and key U.S. figures, showcasing a mutual yearning to elevate trade exchange beyond political landscapes.
“We’ve rich conversations suggesting bipartisan, bicameral endorsement for strengthening trade ties across both nations,” K’Ombudo remarked.
Expressing her convictions earlier, U.S. Ambassador Meg Whitman described a fervor to lock in a treaty before any administrative change, aspiring for this milestone as a feather in President Biden’s cap in tightening ties with East Africa’s heavyweight.
In Whitman’s optimistic view from Nairobi, “I really hope we can bring this to fruition by year-end.” Even as the calendar meanders through the ‘lame duck’ phase—the betwixt-and-between of turnover post-elections and power-strapping come January—there’s hope.
“Let’s seize this window,” Whitman hinted, indicating potential to ink the accord during this transitional spell.
A bilateral compact beckons Kenya. Eyeing a sliver, if not a significant slice of the U.S. trade pie, an ambition to seize at least 5% of the U.S. market looms, with estimates dangling around potential revenue generation surpassing Sh2 trillion annually.
Reflecting the past year’s dynamics, Kenyan exports to the U.S. dwindled to Sh62.3 billion, descending from Sh79.9 billion, as highlighted in the Economic Survey 2024.
Textiles, apparel, macadamia nuts, coffee, titanium ores, and black tea dominate Kenya’s exports to the U.S., yet in the pageant of trade, the scales tip towards the U.S. Currently, Kenya’s wallet felt a heavier tug with imports amounting to Sh112.8 billion, climbing from Sh93.4 billion in 2022.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
